The spread of the Super Bowl will be dissected ad nauseum before the start of the game on the first Sunday of February. The New England Patriots are currently five-point favorites and it will be interesting to see if the line shifts for or against the Philadelphia Eagles in the coming days.
But there are also numerous prop bets to consider as the big game gets closer. One of the most wagered on bet is always the Super Bowl MVP. It is of no surprise that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is the favorite, as he is likely to wrap up the regular season award and is the signal-caller for the team expected to win.
However, if those odds don’t interest a bettor, there are plenty of longshots that could pique the interest.
The Super Bowl will take place on Sunday, February 4, 2018, at 6:30 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tom Brady -180
Nick Foles +376
Rob Gronkowski +2037
Jay Ajayi +2941
Dion Lewis +3082
Zach Ertz +3082
Brandin Cooks +3082
James White +3251
Danny Amendola +4000
Alshon Jeffery +5000
Nelson Agholor +6500
Rex Burkhead +6500
Chris Hogan +6600
Torrey Smith +10000
Stephen Gostkowski +10000
LeGarrette Blount +10000
Fletcher Cox +10000
Mychal Kendricks +10138
Corey Clement +15000
Dwayne Allen +20000
Malcolm Butler +20000
Stephon Gilmore +20000
Trey Flowers +20000
James Develin +20000
Brandon Bolden +20000
Kyle Van Noy +20000
James Harrison +25000
Brent Celek +25000
Trey Burton +25000
Phillip Dorsett +25000
Field +807
Odds Analysis
It is easy to see by the odds that the quarterbacks are the huge favorites to win the MVP award. Brady is the heavy favorite for good reason. He is a superstar and often spreads the ball out. That makes his numbers look good while it makes it unlikely another teammate will take the title from him.
Brady was named Super Bowl MVP last year, his fourth such time winning the award. He claimed his first in 2002 and then followed up with the others in 2004 and 2015. The only time his team won a Super Bowl and Brady failed to claim the MVP was in 2005 when wide receiver Deion Branch was bestowed the honor.
The last defensive player to win the MVP was Broncos pass-rusher Von Miller after the 2016 season. Before that, Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith did so for the Seahawks in 2014. Defensive players can be good value, but it’s hard determining which one is going to have a standout game.
Pass-rushers and defensive backs make the most sense because they are the most likely to make game-changing plays. With that in mind, consider a guy like Eagles defensive lineman Fletcher Cox, who is a dominant player and capable of helping Philadelphia pull the upset with a sack-fumble.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski is an interesting choice. He suffered a concussion in the AFC Championship game against the Jaguars and it’s unknown if he will be available for this contest. If Gronkowski is cleared, he is the most talented tight end in the NFL and could be in the running for MVP if he has a good performance.
Foles isn’t nearly the same type of quarterback as Brady, but he had a fantastic showing in the NFC Championship game against the Vikings. If he can put up similar numbers again and the Eagles pull off the upset, he will be the MVP. However, the odds of that are unlikely.
If Philadelphia wins, it will likely be on the strength of its defense or running game, which doesn’t make Foles a value bet.
Free ATS Pick
It’s boring, but Brady should be the pick. The Patriots are likely going to win this game, and the offense is going to play a big role in it. If Brady feeds the same player consistently, the MVP could go to a pass-catcher, but the belief is there will be enough variety to make Brady stand out once again.
Cox and Gronkowski could be good choices for those looking for a big payday, but expect Brady to come away with the hardware in the end.
NFL Odds: Tom Brady, Super Bowl MVP
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