The Tennessee Titans pulled off a shocking second-half comeback to beat the Chiefs in the wild card round of the playoffs. They would truly shock the world with a win in the AFC Divisional Round. The Titans will hit the road to face off against the defending champion New England Patriots, who are the top seed and favorites once again to win the conference.
Tennessee pulled off the upset as the underdog last time out but are going to be very unlikely to even come close to doing so again. New England received a gift as the Titans are the weakest team left in the playoff field and the Patriots get to host them in a game that should be an easy win.
The more intriguing question may be which team covers the spread in this matchup.
This AFC Divisional Round contest will go down Saturday, January 13, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium on CBS
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee TItans -13
New England Patriots +13
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
The Patriots are nearly two-touchdown favorites in this one, which is going to be the biggest line of the divisional round, by far. New England is still being backed heavily to cover the spread as more than 81 percent of the action is heading that way.
The scoring total is high as the Patriots boast an elite offense. The “under” is the more popular pick as the betting public believes these teams may not be able to combine for that many points.
Injury Report
DeMarco Murray - The Titans’ standout running back missed the wild card round with a knee injury. His status is in question for this one, although it would be a quick return as he has an MCL tear. Tennessee has relied on Derrick Henry without Murray around, and he may need to carry the load again. There is not much of a dropoff, if there is one at all, between the two running backs, but it does mean Henry won’t be as fresh since he has to take on a bigger load.
Alan Branch- The Patriots’ defensive lineman suffered a knee injury on Dec. 11 and hasn’t played since but returned to practice last week, which bodes well for his availability. Branch isn’t a huge cog on defense but does add another option in the defensive line rotation.
Rex Burkhead- The New England running back suffered a knee injury in mid-December and hasn’t played after that but did practice last week. Dion Lewis figures to be the main running back but Burkhead is a versatile player who excels at catching the ball, so he could be used heavily if available.
Mike Gillislee - The Patriots running back is dealing with a knee injury that kept him out of practice last week. New England has several running backs that can do the job so this wouldn’t be a significant loss. However, Bill Belichick loves scanning for matchup imbalances, and there’s always a chance a guy like Gillislee can have a prominent role if he is active.
Player To Watch
Tom Brady -- The Patriots were the subject of an ESPN story last week questioning the relationship between Belichick and his star quarterback, Brady. Both have said their relationship is fine but it will be interesting to see if there are any early reverberations in this game.
Brady wrapped up another phenomenal season, throwing for 4,577 yards with 32 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He has a ton of playoff experience and will be ready to roll in this one. The Titans must figure out a way to slow him down, but it’s so tough. The best way is to get pressure, and while the Tennessee defense is decent it isn’t among the league’s elite.
Free ATS Pick
The Titans should be happy they made it this far because they have met the end of the road. The Patriots should have no trouble jumping out to an early lead and rolling to an easy win. Look for Brady to dice up the Titans through the air while the defense gives Marcus Mariota fits with some different looks.
The spread is a big one but the Patriots are still the pick to cover as this one should not be close. The “under” is the pick as the Patriots will take their foot off the gas in the second half.
NFL Odds: Patriots 30, Titans 14
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