The Green Bay Packers are the hottest team in the NFL and they’re coming off a Wild Card game in which they scored 38 points against one of the better defensive units. It would be hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers and what he’s done to carry the Pack to the postseason, and the rookie sensations of the Dallas Cowboys have never experienced playoff football, though they have had an extended period of rest. This game sets up to be the marquee matchup of the Divisional Round.
Kickoff for this Divisional Round playoff game is set for Sunday, January 15, 2017, at 4:40 p.m. ET at ATT Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers +4
Dallas Cowboys -4
Over/Under 51.5
Odds Analysis
The Packers are a hot team and opened the playoffs with their seventh consecutive win while going 6-1 ATS during that span. Some of the Cowboys regulars took the final regular season game off and the team enjoyed a bye last week, so they are well rested with no injury concerns. There’s something to be said about that, especially after the Packers lost a few key players in the Giants game. Dallas opened as a 4-point favorite and we could see movement on the line either way before kickoff. The Boys went into Green Bay back in Week 6 and manhandled the Pack 30-16 as 5-point dogs. I expect this one to be closer and the total could be in danger with two explosive offensive teams.
Injury Report
Jordy Nelson – The Packers lost their receiver to a big hit in the midsection against the Giants and Nelson never returned. He was doubled over in pain after the hit and taken to the locker room soon after. The loss of Nelson would be a big blow to the Packers passing game as he had 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns during the regular season and was the favorite target of Rodgers. Geronimo Allison would take more snaps if Nelson is unable to go.
Blake Martinez – Green Bay also lost one of its defensive stalwarts in Martinez, who exited the Giants game with a knee injury. The Pack’s defense has been beset with injuries all season and has played much of the year with a banged up secondary and linebacking corps.
Matchup to Watch
Green Bay’s defense will face a much tougher offense than what it played against in the Wild Card game, and that will put more pressure on Rodgers and Co. to keep up their epic run. Nothing against the Giants, but take Odell Beckham Jr. out of the equation and there just isn’t much there. With help from OBJ, the Packers were able to eliminate him and New York couldn’t take advantage of Green Bay’s early missteps on offense. The Packers did nothing offensively and ended their first five drives with four first downs and five punts.
Green Bay will need to get off to a better start against Dallas or the game could be over quickly. The Pack stayed close against the Giants by playing some stellar defense of their own. They allowed nearly 200 yards in the first half, but limited New York to just two field goals and that was enough time to get the offense in gear. The Cowboys are a more balanced club and gave the Packers fits when they met in Week 6. Ezekiel Elliott is well rested and behind that offensive line, he should have little problem duplicating his 157-yard effort. The Packers are clicking offensively as well and the over could be in serious danger.
Free ATS Pick
The Packers are on a roll and Rodgers is playing like an MVP. Green Bay will stay in this game because of his play and the offense should be able to crack the Cowboys defense. However, without Nelson the Pack is missing a key player and the ability to operate its passing game. Green Bay has no ground attack and Rodgers will end up throwing 40 passes again and the Cowboys are ready for that.
Elliott and Dak Prescott haven’t experienced playoff football and that could be a concern. However, they hadn’t gone through a regular season and all they did was lead the Boys to the best record in the NFC. The two played like poised veterans and I don’t expect them to be rattled by the situation. Like they’ve done all season, the Cowboys will run the ball behind the best line in football and Prescott will take his shots against a beat up secondary. Rodgers will keep the Packers in this one, but in the end there will be too much Elliott for the Pack to contend with. The game will be close with the Packers covering in a shootout.
NFL Odds: Cowboys 30, Packers 27
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
