The Houston Texans don’t have much of a chance to upset the Super Bowl favorite New England Patriots in the Divisional Round and oddsmakers have noted such. The Pats opened as a 16-point favorite in their matchup, the largest spread for this round in nearly 20 years. And it’s not hard to figure out why. Without Tom Brady, the Pats slaughtered the Texans 27-0 back in Week 3, and now New England is healthy and has the best quarterback playing at the top of his game.
Watch this Divisional Playoff round matchup live on Saturday, January 14, 2017, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +15.5
New England Patriots -15.5
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The line opened at New England -16, which is the highest for a Divisional Round game in nearly two decades. The Pats are no strangers to double-digit spreads. They were favored by at least 10 points four times during the regular season and covered each time. With the Week 3 meeting a pick em because New England started Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, the Pats stuffed Houston 27-0. Sharp action on the visitors brought the line down a half point to its current number. The over is getting plenty of play on the total of 44.5, but that number is high for my liking. Houston will struggle to score and that puts value on the under.
Injury Report
Quentin Demps – Houston’s safety exited the Raiders game with a hamstring injury and his potential absence could put the defense in a tough spot against the Patriots. Demps snared a career-high six interceptions this season and was a major reason why the Texans had the second-ranked pass defense. If he’s unavailable, expect Brady to exploit the middle of the field with Martellus Bennett.
Last Meeting
The Texans really have nothing to lose in this game and that could make them dangerous. When Houston visited Foxboro back in September, it was supposed to be a matchup of two AFC contenders and the Texans were playing a Brady-less squad. Still, Houston couldn’t do anything and contributed heavily to its own demise in that contest. Brock Osweiler looked lost and several costly turnovers gave the Patriots a short field and they capitalized. The Texans failed to cross mid-field until well into the second half and the Pats pitched a shutout in the 27-0 verdict.
Much has changed since that Week 3 contest, mainly the return of Brady, who produced one of his best seasons in a career full of them. Osweiler got his starting job back and had his best game of the year last week in a win over the Raiders and Houston’s No. 1 ranked defense made life miserable for Connor Cook. But there’s a difference between facing a rookie in his first career start and going against a three-time Super Bowl MVP on the road. I expect the Texans to pull out all the stops in this one and should they be successful they may keep the score close.
Free ATS Pick
Facing the Patriots on the road in the playoffs is a daunting task. Facing them with a healthy lineup makes the chore that much more difficult. Houston may have had the best first-round playoff matchup, facing a Raiders team that was already defeated after losing Derek Carr and Matt McGloin. The defense was solid handling Cook, who hadn’t even dressed for a game until the regular season finale, and made his first career start. So a Texans victory was almost expected.
It’s hard to go against a team spotted 16 points, but the Patriots are a better team heading into the playoffs than they were at the end of the season. Brady loves challenges and facing the No. 1 overall defense presents one. And he could have Danny Amendola back in the lineup and Michael Floyd is getting acquainted with the offense. That makes the Pats even scarier on that side of the ball. Houston’s defense will have to play a perfect game because the offense isn’t going to score a lot of points. Hell, they didn’t score any in the first meeting. Houston’s only hope is to collect several turnovers and play lights out on special teams. The only problem is that New England won’t oblige. The spread is huge, but the Patriots are poised to cover.
NFL Odds: Patriots 27, Texans 9
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