The New England Patriots are hopeful a first-round bye gives them enough time to cure their ills. The defending champs have lost four of their last six games and face the streaking Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
One more defeat, and that‘s the end of the Pats quest to be the first back-to-back champions since they did it in 2003-04.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -4.5
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5
Over/Under 45.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
With two weeks to regroup the defending champs should look like a much different team than the one that ended the regular season. The Patriots are a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four division round games. Also, if history is any indication, then the Pats should be a lock, as they are 9-0 SU after consecutive losses. The spread was wagered to New England -5 while the total dropped to 41.5.
KEY INJURIES
Jeremy Maclin – Sustained a high ankle sprain in Saturday’s wild card win over Houston and didn’t practice early in the week. He’s doubtful to play against New England, taking the Chiefs top receiving threat out of the lineup. Chris Conley and Jason Avant will have increased roles in the offense.
Mitch Morse – Kansas City’s starting center missed the wild card game due to a concussion, and has yet to pass the protocol. Zach Fulton started in his place last week. Right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif also sustained a concussion last week and is in the league’s protocol for head injuries.
Chandler Jones – Missed the final regular season game with a toe injury and in a bizarre event over the weekend was rushed to a Foxboro area hospital with an unknown medical emergency. He returned to the Pats practice facility and no update on his condition was given.
KEY MISMATCH
Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady will take the field Saturday for his NFL record-tying 30th postseason game, which is experience that bolsters the confidence of his teammates. Brady is 21-8 as a starter in the postseason and has played in nine conference championship games, which is the most of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. He has thrown three or more touchdown passes eight different times in the playoffs, one shy of Joe Montana’s record, and completed a record 16 straight passes in Super Bowl XLVI. Brady is the all-time leader in postseason touchdown passes with 53, passing yards with 7,345 and completions with 683. He is also the only player in league history with 50 touchdowns, 7,000 yards and 600 completions in the playoffs.
KEY STAT
17.9 – Kansas City’s points per game allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs had the third-best scoring defense during the regular year and tossed their first postseason shutout with a 30-0 blanking of the Texans last week. New England averaged just 15 points while losing its last two regular season games.
BETTING ANGLE
The march to another Super Bowl for New England begins Saturday. The Patriots finished the regular season on a serious slide, at least by their standards, losing four of their last six games. It’s a much different story for the Chiefs, who after shellacking the Texans in the wild card game, have won 11 straight. The teams have also performed drastically different at the betting window, with the Pats going 2-5-1 ATS in the second half, while KC has gone a reliable 8-3 during their 11-game winning streak, including covers in five straight road games. Despite their lackluster end to the regular season, the Patriots opened as a 4.5-point favorite, though they haven’t responded well in that range, going 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four when favored by 5.5 points or less.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The first-round bye was just what the Patriots needed to get their house in order. The additional week off allowed several players to get game-ready, including receiver Julian Edelman, who just happens to be Brady’s go-to guy. The plethora of season-ending injuries the Pats endured did a number on their offensive line and running backs. But the club has pushed forward and should be ready with what they have. Kansas City took advantage of a shaky Brian Hoyer to capture its first playoff win in nine tries, but won’t have that luxury this week. Brady has proven to be the best, and while the Pats stumbled down the stretch, they had the extra week to get ready. The Chiefs will likely be without their top receiving threat, hindering their ability to score. And they just won’t have enough to get by the Pats in what should be a close game.
New England 26, Kansas City 23
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots is set for Saturday, January 16, 2016, at 4:35 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
