With their three stars on offense all playing together in the postseason for the first time, the Pittsburgh Steelers whacked the Dolphins and have the look of a team that could make a trip to the AFC Championship game. In order to get there, however, the Steelers must overcome the stingy defense of the Kansas City Chiefs. They did that already this season, posting a big win over K.C. in October, but this is a playoff game in unruly Arrowhead where fans have waited over 20 years to witness a postseason victory.
This matchup in the Divisional Playoff Round will take place on Sunday, January 15, 2017, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers +1
Kansas City Chiefs -1
Over/Under 46.5
Odds Analysis
The line jumped the fence after opening with Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite. The early action was heavy on the home team forcing the spread to fluctuate wildly after hitting the board. Within a few hours after opening, the Chiefs were on the board as a 1-point favorite. Don’t be surprised to see this line continue to move. Kansas City was just 3-5 ATS at home this season and they took a beating in Pittsburgh earlier as a 3-point dog.
Injury Report
Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben got his ankle rolled on late in the win over Miami and was hobbling around the postgame presser wearing a walking boot. The severity of the injury is unknown, but Roethlisberger said he will play on Sunday. He has played through injuries in the past, but his effectiveness could be compromised with a bad ankle that will likely limit his mobility.
Ladarius Green – The tight end added another dimension to the Steelers passing game when he returned to the lineup from an ankle injury. He quickly became a favorite target of Roethlisberger’s and opened up the field for Antonio Brown. However Green has been sidelined in the concussion protocol, and it’s unknown if he’ll be cleared to play against the Chiefs. He could be an important weapon against K.C.’s secondary.
Matchup to Watch
The Steelers will try to avoid obvious passing downs because that can be suicide against the Chiefs defense. With Marcus Peters collecting six interceptions and Eric Berry four, Kansas City led the NFL with 18 interceptions. And Roethlisberger has been known to chuck a few picks in his day. Big Ben tossed 13 interceptions during the regular year and was picked off twice by the Dolphins in the wild card game. In order to avoid those situations, the Steelers will turn to Le’Veon Bell and the running game.
Bell exploded for a franchise playoff record 167 yards and scored twice on his 29 rush attempts against Miami. He’ll face a Chiefs defense that allowed 121.1 yards on the ground during the regular season, the seventh-most in the league. Bell went for 144 yards on 18 carries when the Steelers defeated Kansas City back in Week 4 and the Chiefs failed to record a takeaway, one of just three games K.C. didn’t create a turnover. Pittsburgh will need to play another flawless game to escape with a victory.
Free ATS Pick
This game figures to be different than the regular season meeting where the Steelers crushed the Chiefs. Roethlisberger came out of the Miami game with a bad ankle and that will hinder his ability to move around in the backfield. Expect to see Bell get a bunch of carries against a unit that was susceptible to the run and to keep pressure off Big Ben. K.C. will get more of the same against the Steelers and if they can’t contain Bell, it could be a long afternoon.
The Chiefs had trouble with Tampa Bay and Tennessee at home during the second half of the season, two teams that played strong defense and liked to run the football. The result was a pair of 19-17 defeats. Pittsburgh has more options offensively, but the injury to Roethlisberger is a concern. Kansas City also likes to run the football and we could see a low-scoring game because of it. All the talk will be about the Steelers this week, but the Chiefs aren’t patsies and they’ll use the play-making ability of Tyreek Hill to get some big plays from the offense. I like the Chiefs to come out ahead after having a week to get healthy.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 24, Steelers 20
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