If the old saying of defense wins championships holds true, the Seattle Seahawks might be on their way to another Super Bowl. Seattle stymied the Lions last weekend, holding them without a touchdown in the Wild Card game, but that old adage will get a severe test in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs when the top ranked offense of the Atlanta Falcons gets a shot at home to take down the Seahawks. Competing in the postseason is nothing new to the Seahawks, who have won eight playoff games in the last five years.
This contest in the Divisional Playoff round will go down Saturday, January 14, 2017, at 4:35 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
Atlanta Falcons -4.5
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
The betting public has accepted the home team with nearly 60 percent of the early spread wagers favoring the Falcons. Atlanta hit the board as a 3.5-point favorite and that number has climbed a full point to -4.5. The Falcons covered as a 7-point dog when the teams met in Week 6 with the total at 45.5 for that game. Seattle eked out a 26-24 win and the over/under has been adjusted to 51. Seattle has not played a game this season with the total that high and 61 percent of the early bets are on the team’s playing over that number.
Injury Report
Tyler Lockett – Seattle escaped its game with Detroit relatively injury-free but the Seahawks will miss Lockett in the return game. Lockett sustained a broken leg a few weeks back and Seattle hasn’t found a capable return man. In a move of desperation, they signed Devin Hester prior to the Detroit game and he did nothing to enhance that part of Seattle’s game.
Keanu Neal – Atlanta’s hard-hitting rookie safety sustained a concussion in the regular season finale and his status is unclear. His loss could be devastating to a secondary that has already lost Desmond Trufant and Kemal Ishmael to season-ending injuries. Russell Wilson had a nice game with all three players in the defensive backfield in Week 6.
Matchup to Watch
The Falcons know they can dent the Seahawks defense and probably should have beaten Seattle when the clubs met at CenturyLink Field in Week 6. Behind Matt Ryan, the Falcons exploded for 21 points and amassed 252 yards in the third quarter to take a 24-17 lead. Atlanta still held a one-point lead after blocking an extra point that would have tied the game with under five minutes to play in the fourth. However, the Falcons gave the ball back on a Ryan interception which led to Seattle’s game-winning field goal.
But the controversy came on Atlanta’s final drive, when on a fourth-down play Julio Jones appeared to be interfered with by Richard Sherman. The play resulted in a no-call and the Falcons turned the ball over on downs. No one knows the Seattle defense better than Dan Quinn, who was the Seahawks coordinator for two seasons before taking the Falcons job. His offense produced 362 yards and 22 first downs in the first meeting, but a questionable non-call and two costly turnovers proved critical in the loss.
Free ATS Pick
Seattle definitely has the edge on the defensive side of the ball and the Falcons will need to slow down the ground game of the Seahawks to give their offense a shot. All season, Seattle tried to be a running team and the strategy failed. But against the Lions in the Wild Card round, they may have found their identity. Thomas Rawls had a monster game and the Falcons aren’t the stingiest group against the run. Being able to move the football on the ground opens everything up for the Seattle offense and if they are successful, I can see them pulling off the road upset.
There’s a lot to be said about having that first-round bye and the Falcons used the off week to get some key players healthier. Jones had a big game in Seattle during Week 6 and Vic Beasley led the league in sacks. Both players ended the regular year with injury concerns and should be much better come Saturday. This group of Seahawks has plenty of postseason experience and playing on the road won’t be a factor. Ryan hasn’t been as successful in the playoffs and Seattle will do enough to rattle him. The Seahawks will move the ball on the ground and that will keep the score below the total.
NFL Odds: Seahawks 24, Falcons 22
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