Normally speaking, the man who wins the Offensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL ends up being a skill position player. If all else is equal, the quarterback gets the award. However, on the other side of the ball, it's a heck of a lot more difficult to try to handicap the NFL futures odds.
That said, the payoff on the odds to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award are tremendous across the board.
ODDS TO WIN DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Eric Kendricks +675
Stephone Anthony +675
Landon Collins +1531
Bernardick McKinney +1800
Vic Beasley +500
Leonard Williams +600
Shaq Thompson +2623
Randy Gregory +962
Denzel Perryman +3300
Preston Smith +4000
Marcus Peters +1750
Trae Waynes +4500
Paul Dawson +4000
Owamagbe Odighizuwa +1895
Bud Dupree +2802
Jake Ryan +4000
Shane Ray +4000
Damarious Randall +4500
Arik Armstead +1801
Mario Edwards Jr. +2646
Hauoli Kikaha +1930
Jalen Collins +5500
Markus Golden +5000
Byron Jones +5500
Danny Shelton +2702
Kevin Johnson +5820
The first item of business is to try to figure out which ones of these rookies were drafted to be on the field every snap or virtually every snap for their teams' defense. There are definitely going to be more than just three or four guys, but the two who immediately stood off of the page were Vic Beasley and Leonard Williams.
Williams might be the most talented player in this rookie class on either side of the ball. He's a freak at defensive tackle, but he is going to be handicapped just a bit by the fact that his job isn't to amass sacks and statistics. His job is to just eat a massive hole along the Jets' defensive line.
Beasley is the favorite for a reason at 5 to 1. The Falcons have had no pass rush whatsoever over the course of the last several seasons, and this was the first real attempt to fix that problem.
Bringing in new coach Dan Quinn is going to help make this defense more aggressive, if nothing else. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Beasley to get after the quarterback. Asking for 10+ sacks isn't completely unrealistic for the man who was definitively the best pass rusher in this draft as we saw it.
The Steelers are still reworking their linebacking corps, and drafting Bud Dupree should have helped that out immediately. Of late, Pittsburgh hasn't had the best of luck drafting linebackers who have had an immediate impact, but this could be an exception. Just as Luke Kuechly was a tackling machine for the Panthers right when he came out of school, Dupree could end up doing the same thing here in the Steelers' 3-4 attack.
Landon Collins is an interesting choice as well at over 15 to 1. The Giants need a lot of help at the safety spot, and they let Stevie Brown go in the offseason knowing that Collins was going to be the man who ultimately filled in.
History will tell you that it takes at least six or seven interceptions for a corner or a safety to be considered the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and we see no reason why Collins can't at least threaten that mark. Getting there is a totally different discussion, but Collins has proven to be a ball hawk all throughout his playing career, and if he can keep that up at the pro level, he'll be a steal at this price.
Lastly for a real longshot, we're going to take a stab on Trae Waynes with the Vikings. Again, Minnesota has had problems in the secondary, which is why drafting Waynes became so important. We know that the Viking is a physical specimen, but we also know that he is likely only to play in nickel and dime duties. That doesn't mean that he can't get his stats, though. One really good run of a few games, and all of a sudden, that 45 to 1 price tag on Minnesota's top defensive rookie could pay dividends.
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