The game is played on a neutral field in Houston, and even though Atlanta is closer, the crowd could be tilted in favor of New England since it has the bigger fanbase. The Falcons are slight underdogs, and the big question will be if the Patriots’ highly-ranked defense can live up to its billing and slow down the Atlanta juggernaut.
The Super Bowl will be held on Sunday, February 5, 2017, at 6:30 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will be televised live on FOX.
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The Patriots are three-point favorites, and that line has remained steady since the betting opened a week ago following the conclusion of the championship games. New England is taking in the majority of the action on the spread, as 70.4 percent of the money has come in on the Patriots.
The over-under is set at 58 points because both teams have potent offenses. More than 77 percent of the money is coming in on the “over” even with the high total. Atlanta has consistently hit the “over” in its games, including even when it was above 60 in the NFC Title game against the Packers.
New England has gone an incredible 15-3 against the spread this season and is 16-2 straight up. The Falcons have covered in 12 of 18 games and have gone 13-5 straight up. The Falcons are being wagered on at plus-138 on the moneyline, while the Patriots’ odds are listed at -158 to win.
Player to Watch
Matt Ryan -- Even though Tom Brady is the bigger star, it is the Falcons quarterback who is the likely season MVP and the one to watch in this one. If Ryan can play as well as he has the majority of the season, it should allow the Falcons to either keep this one close or pull out the win.
However, while Brady is super experienced in Super Bowls, Ryan has never been on a stage this big. If he stumbles at all while adjusting, it could be trouble. Atlanta’s offense has been running on all cylinders nearly all season, and Ryan will hope to keep that going.
He has myriad weapons, led by Julio Jones, Taylor Gabriel, Devonta Freeman, Mohamed Sanu and Tevin Coleman. The Patriots’ defense ended the season as the No. 1 scoring unit but will be severely tested by Ryan. New England does have the benefit of employing Bill Belichick, one of the most creative minds in coaching, and he should have a good plan ready.
Matchup To Watch
Tom Brady vs. the Falcons’ secondary -- New England’s quarterback leads a Patriots offense that is nearly as prolific as Atlanta’s. The Falcons had a poor defense for much of the season, but it markedly improved by the end of the year.
Atlanta performed very well in the championship game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and would love to duplicate that. Brady and the New England offense is so tough to stop because they have many different ways to score.
The job Atlanta’s young secondary does against Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and the other New England wideouts could determine this one.
Free NFL ATS Picks
The Patriots are slight favorites, but the Falcons have played so well of late it is tough to say definitively what will happen in this one. While Atlanta has looked great, it’s too tough to pick against Belichick’s scheming and Brady’s big-moment ability.
The Falcons are a young team on defense and may be too vulnerable. Atlanta should get its offense rolling at certain points, but New England will be more consistent throughout and come away with a victory. Choose the Patriots to both win and cover in the Super Bowl.
NFL Odds: Patriots 34, Falcons 27
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