If the Atlanta Falcons need to be warned about the perils of NFL life, they need not look further than division rival Carolina. It was the Panthers coming off a 15-win regular season in 2015 and picked by many to be the next super team. But a few injuries and bad breaks had Carolina at the bottom of the NFC South with just six wins in 2016. That’s how fast a team can tumble and the Falcons also have to be concerned about their epic collapse in the Super Bowl. Use that loss as motivation, remain relatively healthy and the win total is well within reach for this loaded team.
Atlanta Falcons Futures Odds at BookMaker.eu
Falcons Over 9.5 Wins -103
Falcons Under 9.5 Wins -117
2017 Atlanta Falcons Offense Preview
The Falcons did lose offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who took the head job with the 49ers. Otherwise, the on-field product remains the same and that’s good news for new coordinator Steve Sarkisian. He won’t have to overhaul the unit that led the NFL in scoring and offensive touchdowns while averaging nearly 416 yards of offense per game.
The numbers were produced by Matt Ryan, who became the elite quarterback most thought he would when the Falcons drafted him. Ryan threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns while being intercepted only seven times. That was more than enough to earn him league MVP. Not much will change in the scheme and in his 10th year, Ryan is a coordinator on the field.
The passing game was crisp with Ryan tossing to Julio Jones and Muhammad Sanu, but the run game gave the Falcons a balance they hadn’t had. Devonta Freeman blossomed into the lead back by running for 1,079 yards and Tevin Coleman added 520. Atlanta ranked fifth with over 120 rush yards per game and the two combined for 19 of the team’s 20 rushing scores.
2017 Atlanta Falcons Defense Preview
Dan Quinn is building a defense similar to the ones he constructed in Seattle when he was the coordinator there. The unit improved drastically last season, which played a big part in the team’s success. Vic Beasley flourished in his second season leading the league with 15.5 sacks.
The Falcons have struck gold in recent drafts, getting Beasley, Coleman and corner Jalen Collins two years ago then adding defensive stalwarts Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell last year. The group got younger and faster with the draft addition of Takkarist McKinley, who gives them another pass rusher alongside Beasley.
The defense shouldered much of the blame for the Super Bowl collapse and Quinn fired coordinator Richard Smith in the aftermath. Marquand Manuel takes over the group, but Quinn will have a close eye on that side of the football. The group got younger, but did it get better? The recent picks need to continue developing and the biggest hurdle is putting that blown lead to New England in the Super Bowl behind them.
2017 Atlanta Falcons Schedule Analysis
The schedule doesn’t appear to be intimidating which makes us think reaching the over on the win total is a smart play. The Falcons get the NFC North and AFC East, divisions that each have a Super Bowl contender but question marks surround the others. Atlanta opens with three straight against NFC North competition, but the biggest game of the bunch, the NFC Championship rematch with Green Bay, is at home.
All six NFC South games take place in the final nine games of the year and there’s a good chance the Falcons will have the necessary wins heading into that stretch. They went 5-1 against division foes last year and end the season with four of their last six at home. They do get Seattle and Dallas as their extra games, but a split is likely.
The Final Verdict
Reaching 10 wins looks like a lock given the Falcons schedule and the personnel put together by Quinn. Of course you can never anticipate injuries, and if Atlanta is faced with a key one, the number could decline. But Quinn has added depth throughout the roster, something they haven’t had in a few years.
The offense may have overachieved last season and some regression might be expected. However, the additions on defense should make that side of the ball better. The group is younger and faster than last year’s version and that bodes well against the more explosive offenses in the league. The NFC South has some of them and the Falcons owned the division last season. The team has to get over the devastation from last February and if it does, a double-digit win season is theirs.
NFL Odds: Atlanta Falcons Over 9.5 Wins
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