After back-to-back 8-8 seasons, the Indianapolis Colts are ready to be a playoff team again. The team has a new general manager in Chris Ballard and signed a ton of free agents this offseason.
But, so much hinges on the health of quarterback Andrew Luck, who remains in question for the team’s Week 1 matchup against the Rams on September 10th. Luck had surgery on his shoulder this offseason and many expected him to be back in plenty of time for the season. However, his absence continues to last and Colts fans are in full-blown panic mode.
Indianapolis isn’t as deep as a team like the Houston Texans, which is the favorite in the AFC South. Luck is the reason why the Colts can’t be ruled out, but if he misses a few early games it is going to severely damage the team’s shot at claiming the division.
This is one of the biggest injury storylines of the earlygoing. The Colts’ odds are much too high to win the division if Luck misses a chunk of the season, as the Texans or the Tennessee Titans would be the much more prudent choice.
AFC North Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +175
Indianapolis Colts +205
Tennessee Titans +225
Jacksonville Jaguars +675
Why the Indianapolis Colts Will Win the AFC South
There is a lot of mystery surrounding Luck, but it’s possible he only misses a little bit of action and excels upon his return. The 28-year-old gunslinger threw for 4,240 yards with 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions a season ago and is the most talented quarterback in the AFC South when he is on the field.
He has an elite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, who had 91 catches for 1,448 yards and six touchdowns a season ago. Hilton leads a nice group of pass-catchers, and in a league that continues to trend more toward the air, the Colts have shown the capacity to go toe-to-toe with anyone.
The schedule is also quite manageable. The Colts play the Jaguars twice, the 49ers, the Browns, the Rams and the Bills. If they can handle those games, it will put them in a great position to make a push for the division. Indy has traditionally dominated the AFC South, winning it 14 times since 1999. It hasn’t happened the past two seasons, but the Colts did reel off three straight divisional championships previously and had the run of the place under Peyton Manning.
Why the Indianapolis Colts Won’t Win the AFC South
There are some teams that can overcome the loss of their starting quarterback for a stretch, but the Colts don’t seem to be that team. The running game is below average, as Frank Gore used to be a star but is now on his last legs. Backup signal-caller Scott Tolzien is not very impressive and could struggle getting the ball to the playmakers on the outside.
The defense allowed 24.5 points per game last year, which was 22nd in the NFL, and it may not be much better this year. When Luck is playing, the Colts are a decent but not great team. Every team in the AFC South has its warts, which is why Indianapolis seemed like as good of a pick as any to win the division heading into the preseason.
However, it is hard to see the Colts with a winning record if Luck misses time, and he could be rusty whenever he does come back. Indianapolis is one of the teams totally reliant on a star quarterback, and his absence is felt mightily. The Texans have quarterback issues of their own, but they have a dominant defense.
The Titans finished with a better record than the Colts last season and could be better. Even the Jaguars may be able to surpass the Colts if Luck’s injury takes him out for several weeks. It is hard to imagine at this point the Colts winning the AFC South because of all the uncertainty surrounding Luck.
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