Indy suffered through a lost season last year, as quarterback Andrew Luck missed nine games to injury. The Colts managed to go 8-8 and, somewhat remarkably, 6-3 without their franchise signal-caller. Despite the perfectly average record, finishing .500 had to be considered a remarkable feat given the team’s statistical crappiness on both sides of the ball.
Head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson patched up their differences for the time being and both were re-upped with multi-year deals. With the coaching staff and front office in order, are there enough pieces around Luck for an improvement?
Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colts Over 9.5 Wins +115
Colts Under 9.5 Wins -135
This year, Indianapolis hopes to have its starting quarterback back and healthy for at least 16 games, but it will need improvements from a 29th-ranked running game and 26th-ranked defense to return to the playoffs. Free agency didn’t work out too well for them and overall it probably hurt them team more than it helped.
Still, the Colts are the team to beat in the division simply based on the fact that they have Luck, who’s the best quarterback in the AFC South. Indianapolis didn’t do a lot during the offseason to address their depth issue, but strengthening the offensive line was one upgraded area. And that was out of necessity to keep Luck upright.
The Colts figure to score plenty of points in 2016, but can the defense do its part to get a few extra wins? Right now, the answer would be no. But Indy does have arguably the best kicker in NFL history in Adam Vinatieri, who will give them an edge in close games.
2016 Indianapolis Colts Schedule
Week 1: vs. Detroit Lions +4.5
Week 2: at Denver Broncos -5
Week 3: vs. San Diego Chargers +5.5
Week 4: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Week 5: vs. Chicago Bears +3.5
Week 6: at Houston Texans -1.5
Week 7: at Tennessee Titans +3.5
Week 8: vs. Kansas City Chiefs +1
Week 9: at Green Bay Packers -6
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: vs. Tennessee Titans +8
Week 12: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
Week 13: at New York Jets -2
Week 14: vs. Houston Texans +4
Week 15: at Minnesota Vikings -4
Week 16: at Oakland Raiders -1
Week 17: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
With improvement inside the division and finishing second last year in the AFC South, the Colts’ schedule looks fairly tough. They get the NFC North, AFC West, their six division games, plus matchups with Pittsburgh and the New York Jets. Another disaster like last year could put them at six wins. With a better defensive effort and healthy quarterback, the Colts could top out at 12 victories. We’ll split the difference on this one.
QUICK PICK
Unlike the Dallas Cowboys, the Colts held it together last season when their stud quarterback went down injured and rallied to win their final two games to finish at 8-8. There’s plenty to be said about continuity within an organization and the three men most responsible for the team’s fate are back even more resolute in 2016.
The Colts will be fun to watch with Luck at the controls, but they’re a year away from committing more draft picks to impact players on defense. And with their quarterback now signed to one of the biggest contracts in NFL history, it’s reasonable to assume that the Colts will be a force come 2017. They’ll have to get through this season first.
Luck returns from his shoulder and kidney damage to an AFC South that seems to be improving. And although Luck is highly-skilled – and rich, too, after signing an extension in the offseason – his supporting cast remains shaky. Until the Colts can show some balance in the offense, get a better pass rush, and have a receiving threat other than T.Y. Hilton, this looks like a nine-win team, tops, even with a healthy Luck.
NFL Odds: Indianapolis Colts Under 9.5 Wins
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