If at first you don’t succeed, Roger Goodell will try, try again. And once again, the NFL Commish got what he wanted. Thanks to a recent court ruling, the Patriots face the real prospect of playing their first quarter of 2016 without starting quarterback Tom Brady as the Deflategate soap opera just won’t go away.
While New England’s odds to win Super Bowl LI took a slight jump, the betting public as whole seems to think the Pats can survive his absence, and even without Brady for a quarter of the season, the Patriots are likely to put up double digit wins just because they’re the Pats, and that’s what they do.
New England Patriots Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
Patriots Over 10.5 Wins -112
Patriots Under 10.5 Wins -108
Under Brady and coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots have been the most successful franchise for some time. In 2015, New England won 12 games for the fourth consecutive regular season and has won at least 10 games in 13 straight years. Over that time the Pats averaged almost 12.5 wins a season and they don’t appear to be slowing down.
There is always the chance that Brady has his suspension overturned, but the Pats are looking at beginning their season against the Arizona Cardinals on the road with third-year backup Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback.
Garoppolo’s been primed for this opportunity. Before the Deflategate penalties were overturned last year, Garoppolo was preparing to begin the 2015 season as the starter. The former second-round pick from Eastern Illinois has made solid strides each year he’s been in the league and is ready for his turn.
2016 New England Patriots Schedule
Week 1: at Arizona Cardinals PK
Week 2: vs. Miami Dolphins ( +9.5 )
Week 3: vs. Houston Texans ( +8 )
Week 4: vs. Buffalo Bills ( +7 )
Week 5: at Cleveland Browns ( +7 )
Week 6: vs. Cincinnati Bengals ( +4 )
Week 7: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 8: at Buffalo Bills ( +3 )
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: vs. Seattle Seahawks ( +2 )
Week 11: at San Francisco 49ers ( +6 )
Week 12: at New York Jets ( +2.5 )
Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Rams ( +9 )
Week 14: vs. Baltimore Ravens ( +9 )
Week 15: at Denver Broncos ( +1 )
Week 16: vs. New York Jets ( +6.5 )
Week 17: at Miami Dolphins
Every time the Patriots play a football game, it has a big-game feel to it. That’s because the Pats have been one of, if not the best team in the league since Y2K. But let’s face it, even though every team might circle the Patriots on their schedule as one of their biggest games of the year, the Patriots treat every game like it’s their biggest game of the year. The opening quarter is an important stretch, for obvious reasons. After the opener in Arizona, which will be a dogfight, New England gets a good roll of the dice with Miami, Houston and Buffalo all at home. If the Pats can manage two or more wins in that stretch under Garoppolo, 12 wins is assured.
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The drama of last season ended in bitter disappointment for the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game in Denver, a loss that hit the team as hard as any in recent years. Now, as the Patriots prepare to take the next step and chase the organization’s fifth Super Bowl title, controversy again surrounds the team with Brady staring down a four-game suspension.
Belichick and Co. made some interesting offseason moves – both in bringing players in and letting others go – but the core of the team remains intact. Despite its flaws and Brady’s early absence, this should again be a team that wins at the minimum 10 games.
Several things have to break the Patriots’ way if they want to match their streak of 12-win seasons. Garoppolo must successfully navigate the team through that Brady-less stretch, which features a Week 1 trip to Arizona followed by home games against Miami, Houston and Buffalo.
Martellus Bennett must become a reliable option in the passing game to complement Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis must stay on the field to give Brady the type of weapons he needs to succeed. The Pats won 12 times last year despite a slew of injuries. There’s no reason they shouldn’t duplicate that feat.
NFL Odds: New England Patriots Over 10.5 Wins
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