Running backs are often treated as a dime a dozen in the NFL, but when a team has one of those truly elite backs, he is often handed the ball until he is run into the ground. The end result is a short lifespan for most top-tier backs in this league, and that's why it's so darn difficult to handicap out who will have the most rushing yards in the NFL in 2015.
Odds to have the most rushing yards in 2015
Adrian Peterson +400
DeMarco Murray +1152
Arian Foster +7500
Jamaal Charles +800
Marshawn Lynch +751
Jeremy Hill +750
Eddie Lacy +701
Alfred Morris +3964
Le'Veon Bell +1503
LeSean McCoy +2966
Matt Forte +3720
C.J. Anderson +1251
Justin Forsett +1904
Melvin Gordon +3015
Mark Ingram +6500
Carlos Hyde +2812
Lamar Miller +2460
Jonathan Stewart +6000
Joseph Randle +3009
Frank Gore +6671
T.J. Yeldon +5500
Chris Ivory +4500
Todd Gurley +5000
LeGarrette Blount +9000
Latavius Murray +2578
Rashad Jennings +10000
Isaiah Crowell +12500
Andre Ellington +8000
Joique Bell +25000
Obviously, this is a heck of a lot of running backs to try to parse through, and it isn't even a given that the winner of this prop is on this list, as unlikely as it would be to be wrong.
But here's what we do know. Arian Foster, who has led the NFL in rushing before, is going to miss at least the first three or four games of the season with a groin injury, which basically eliminates him from the discussion. The same could be said about Le'Veon Bell, who will be suspended for the first two games of 2015, limiting him to just 14 games to do what the rest of these backs have 16 to accomplish.
That said, we aren't counting Bell out yet, though we hate his odds of just 15 to 1. The Michigan State back is a bruiser and can handle 20+ carries on a game in, game out basis. He finished third in the league in rushing last year, and we suspect that no one is going to have over 1,800 yards again like DeMarco Murray did last year.
However, if you want to take a stab on a guy at beyond 10 to 1, Murray is the logical choice. It's really hard to repeat as the rushing champ; the last man to do it was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and 2007 with the Chargers, and no man has ever done it while playing for a different team in the second year from the first year. Chip Kelly though, is going to turn Murray loose, too. Yes, Ryan Mathews is going to pillage some carries, as will Darren Sproles, but only two men had over 300 carries a season ago, and LeSean McCoy was one of them.
McCoy would be in consideration for the rushing title this year as well, but we are afraid of his groin injury which could cause him to miss Week 1 for his new team in Buffalo.
That leaves us with just five men to discuss as far as we see it beyond Murray.
Adrian Peterson is the favorite at 4 to 1, and for good reason. He sat out basically all of last season with his off-the-field troubles, and he should be back and as strong as ever for the Vikings. He's got 2,000-yard capabilities to him, as we have seen in the past, and it would be unwise to bet against him.
Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch have never won the rushing title, though both have finished second in the past. Both are up there in age now though, and picturing either rushing for 1,500 yards this year is just really hard to do.
That leaves Jeremy Hill and Eddie Lacy in our eyes. Hill is an intriguing pick, but we know that Giovani Bernard is going to steal a lot of carries in Cincinnati.
There are no carries to be stolen in Green Bay. Lacy is a horse, and at just 25 years old, we know that he can run the ball 300 times this season. The Packers are going to need some more help from Lacy now that Jordy Nelson is out for the season with a torn ACL, and at 7 to 1, he might be the only surefire 1,200-yard back we see on this list, making him absolutely worthwhile to play to win the rushing championship.
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