Tom Brady is fresh off another Super Bowl championship, and even heading into his age-40 season, is playing at a level few quarterbacks have ever reached. He will aim to keep it rolling and lead the New England Patriots on another title course.
Even with a great offense a season ago, and Patriots have added a key player to the receiving corps in Brandin Cooks to give Brady another weapon. Brady has consistently thrown for more than 33 touchdowns since 2007 and if he does so again this season he will cover a prop bet for those who choose the “over.” However, it’s not exactly a slam dunk that it will happen.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tom Brady total passing touchdowns during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Over 33.5 ( -135 )
Under 33.5 ( +105 )
Odds Analysis
The wager started at -115 on each side of the over-under, and the early action by the betting public has been to jump on the “over.” Surpassing 33.5 touchdowns on the season will now pay off at -135 while the under is more enticing with its +105 odds.
The betting action might get even more slanted based on Brady’s recent success and great performance in the Super Bowl, so jump on it early if the “over” seems like the better pick.
Why Brady Will Throw More Than 33.5 Passing Touchdowns In the 2017-18 Regular Season
While Brady only tossed 28 touchdown passes in 2016, that’s because he missed the first four games of the regular season because of suspension. Extrapolated over a 16-game schedule and he easily would have passed the mark.
Brady threw for 36 touchdowns in 2015 and has surpassed 33.5 scores in four of his past seven seasons while falling just short with 33 in 2014. Brady has been very durable throughout his career and he is showing no signs of decline.
Between Cooks, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, he has a fantastic group of pass-catchers. Furthermore, the Patriots seem likely to use a plethora of running backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield in 2017, which should help Brady’s total.
Why Brady Will Not Throw More Than 33.5 Passing Touchdowns In the 2017-18 Regular Season
While there is no denying Brady has been awesome, the bar is set high in this prop bet. The Patriots blow out a lot of opponents, which means he won’t be needed in a lot of fourth quarters to keep throwing the ball down the field.
Brady should be excellent again, but even if so there are some factors out of his control about reaching that number. Also, while he has generally been healthy, a small injury would really dig into his chances of reaching 34 passing scores.
And while there is no evidence of a Brady decline, Father Time is undefeated and it’s possible this is the year it comes. Brady has been so good for so long that it’s tough to bet against him, but several different factors could result in him falling short of this touchdown total.
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