With the explosion of the passing game in the NFL, the passing yardage and touchdowns keep increasing. Even though Rodgers is into his mid-30s now, he is showing no signs of slowing down. Much of this bet will come down to his health. If he misses any games the “under” could be the correct call, but if he plays in all 16 games like usual, Rodgers could put up another big-time season.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Aaron Rodgers total passing touchdowns during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Over 34.5 (-115)
Under 34.5 (-115)
Aaron Rodgers total passing yards during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Over 4,350 (-115)
Under 4,350 (-115)
Odds Analysis
While other bets have clear favorites on one side or the other of the wager, these two seem properly placed for even action. Rodgers has alternated above and below 34.5 touchdown passes per season in each of the past five years, so it is a solid number.
He also has evenly split himself over and under 4,350 passing yards per season in his nine full campaigns, surpassing the total five times. It will be interesting to see which way this line moves, with the “over” the more likely favorite since that tends to be a more consistent wager.
Why Rodgers Will Throw For More Than 4,350 Passing Yards And 34.5 Touchdowns
These two bets seem pretty well intertwined. Rodgers has been over 34.5 touchdowns in his career four times, and in three of them he surpassed the 4,350 yard mark. The only year he failed to do so was 2012, when he fell only 55 yards short.
The argument for Rodgers surpassing both numbers is clear. He set a career high in completions with 410 and attempts with 610 a season ago, throwing for 4,428 yards and 40 touchdowns. The Packers don’t have a great running game and the defense is only OK, meaning there will be plenty put on Rodgers’ arm once again.
The passing yards, especially, seems like a great bet provided Rodgers stay healthy. In games the team is trailing, he will really rack up the yardage when trying to rally the Packers. Green Bay lost bruising running back Eddie Lacy to the Seahawks, which means passes near the goal-line could go up, which could also be a good sign for his touchdowns.
Why Rodgers Will Not Throw For More Than 4,350 Passing Yards And 34.5 Touchdowns
The bar is set so high that if Rodgers misses a game due to injury or Green Bay doesn’t need him to have huge games very often, the numbers could go down. Rodgers will need to average about 270 passing yards per game to hit the total, but if he sits just one time it shoots that number through the roof.
Rodgers has missed at least one game in three of his nine starting seasons, and he didn’t hit the 4,350 yardage mark twice, with the only exception his dominant 2011 season.
The Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he will once again lead the team to a good record. However, if there is any dip in production or if Green Bay decides to run the ball more, Rodgers will have a tough time hitting these marks.
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