While Father Time is threatening him, Brees has not shown any signs of slowing down and it is tough to bet against him based on his previous dominance through the air.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Drew Brees total passing touchdowns during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Over 34.5 ( -160 )
Under 34.5 ( +130 )
Drew Brees total passing yards during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Over 5,000 ( -115 )
Under 5,000 ( -115 )
Odds Analysis
Bettors have already jumped quickly on one aspect of this prop bet. The touchdown total originally had odds of -115 for both the “over” and the “under” but clearly the belief is that Brees will surpass the number as the odds have jumped to -160 for him to reach 35 passing scores. The “under” is now listed at +130, so those who thought that was the better play are now getting a better payoff.
The passing yardage bet has not seen any movement since the initial release of the odds, so clearly the total is set well and is hard to gauge.
Why Brees Will Throw For More Than 5,000 Passing Yards And 34.5 Touchdowns
Brees has thrown for more than 5,000 yards in four of the past six seasons. In one of the two he didn’t, Brees averaged enough yards per game but missed a contest, which left him short. However, if Brees plays in all 16 games he seems likely to put up enough yardage to once again pass it.
The touchdown mark is the one that bettors really focused on. He has passed 34.5 touchdowns in four of the past six seasons, and threw for 5,208 yards and 37 touchdowns a season ago. The NFL continues to transition to more of a passing league, and Brees keeps on rolling along.
Brees only threw 32 touchdowns in 2015, but that’s the season he missed one game, and again would have been on pace to surpass it. Based on the recent results, it’s easy to see why so much of the action is banging the “over” on the touchdown total.
Why Brees Will Not Throw For More Than 5,000 Passing Yards And 34.5 Touchdowns
While Brees has undoubtedly been a fantastic quarterback throughout his career, there is some danger in this bet. While he hasn’t shown his age yet, players can fall off the cliff quickly in their late 30s.
New Orleans also lost key wide receiver Brandin Cooks in a trade with the Patriots this offseason. The Saints have been awful defensively the last few years and dealt Cooks for a draft pick with the idea of getting better on that side of the ball.
If the Saints aren’t such a sieve defensively, it will mean Brees isn’t needed to win shootouts as much, which will detract from his numbers. Another factor is the addition of former superstar running back Adrian Peterson, who will aim to add some punch to the rushing game.
If New Orleans is better on the ground and on defense, that means Brees will likely fall short of the passing yardage total, even if he stays effective at an advanced age.
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