The LSU star has been earmarked for stardom for a long time and is now getting his NFL shot. Fournette is already physically imposing and has a lot of experience, and should take over a significant role early in his career. Two prop bets have been created to peg just how well he will transition to the NFL game in 2017.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Number of Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards During The 2017-18 Regular Season
Over 900.5 (-115)
Under 900.5 (-115)
Number of Leonard Fournette Rushing Touchdowns During The 2017-18 Regular Season
Over 6.5 (-115)
Under 6.5 (-115)
Odds Analysis
There are solid schools of thought in which Fournette could easily finish either above or below the 900.5-yard and 6.5-touchdown threshold. The money has come in evenly thus far, as the odds on these prop bets have yet to shift.
While the bets were recently set up and still could see some movement, the yardage and touchdown totals seem pegged at good numbers, with money likely to come in on both sides moving forward.
Why Fournette Will Have More Than 900.5 Rushing Yards and 6.5 Rushing TDs In The 2017-18 Regular Season
There might not be a player more set up to succeed as a rookie than Fournette. He joins a Jacksonville team with a shaky quarterback situation and an improved defense, which could make the running game something the coaching staff attempts to lean on.
While Fournette isn’t much of a pass-catcher, that doesn’t matter for this wager. He should get plenty of carries throughout the season, and only needs to average about 56 yards per game on the ground provided he plays in all 16. He should be the short-yardage running back, leading to plenty of chances near the goal-line.
Fournette ran for 3,830 yards with 40 touchdowns in his three-year college career, averaging a gaudy 6.2 yards per carry. While he likely won’t have that type of success in the NFL, he should be able to consistently churn out the yardage and get in the end zone.
Fournette has a nice combination of speed and strength, and the Jaguars will aim to take advantage of his presence.
Why Fournette Will Not Have More Than 900.5 Rushing Yards And 6.5 Rushing TDs In The 2017-18 Regular Season
Even though Fournette is the most talented running back in Jacksonville, he is still a rookie, and the trend in the NFL has been to bring young players along slowly. T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory aren’t great options, but they have a better grasp of the offense and could be in a timeshare with Fournette.
If he doesn’t get most of the carries, the 900.5 rushing yards is a pretty high bar to clear. The Jaguars offense isn’t great, so it’s hard to know how many times Jacksonville will be in the red zone, and who will be the running back when it is there.
There is also injury to consider, as Fournette was marred in college by recurring ankle injuries. It’s nothing major, but if he is indeed injury-prone, that could be a problem.
If Fournette misses a few games as a rookie because of injury, it will really make it tough for him to reach that yardage total. He is healthy now but running backs do take a big pounding, and he must show the ability to handle it.
A lot could also depend on the team’s success. If Jacksonville is leading in games in the fourth quarter, Fournette could be used to bleed the clock and amass yardage. However, if it is losing most games, the Jaguars will be forced to throw and his carries could be limited.
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