If he plays a full season, it will be interesting to see how many times he is sacked by opposing defenses in the 2017-18 regular season. There is a prop bet for it, as bettors must determine how much faite they have in the Colts’ offensive line to keep him clean, and also Luck’s ability to make good decisions and stay on the field.
There is plenty of thought that must go into this bet, with several varying factors playing into the total of sacks that will be accumulated by the end of the year.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
How many times will Andrew Luck be sacked during 2017-18 NFL regular season?
Over 32.5 ( -160 )
Under 32.5 ( +130 )
Odds Analysis
Even though Luck has only been sacked more than 32.5 times in a season in two of his five years in the NFL, the “over” comes in as the early favorite. If Luck is in the game all year and the Colts are down in the fourth quarter of some of the contests, the sacks could really rack up.
The “under” seems like a pretty solid bet, since better overall team success could correlate with Luck staying upright more as he won’t have to take a bunch of chances and hold on to the ball too long. The +130 odds are tantalizing considering how much of a coin-flip this bet feels like.
Why Luck WIll Be Sacked More Than 32.5 Times In The 2017-18 NFL Regular Season
Recent history is the best indicator, and Luck was battered in the 2016 season. He was sacked 41 times, which was among the most in the NFL. The Colts went 8-7 in his 15 games and he was brought down nearly three times per game.
Luck is mobile but he prefers to move around in the pocket rather than run for yardage too much, which leads him susceptible to sacks. The offensive line has been poor for much of his time under center and it hopes to improve this time out.
Luck was also sacked 41 times as a rookie, so while he has only surpassed the 32.5 number two times, he easily did so in both of those seasons. The Colts have Frank Gore as their starting running back, a player who has had a great career but is slowing down. The running game is not expected to be very good, and every time Luck drops back he is in danger of getting sacked, especially when Indianapolis gets in third-and-long situations or falls behind.
Why Luck WIll Not Be Sacked More Than 32.5 Times In The 2017-18 NFL Regular Season
As quarterbacks early they start to be more cognizant of keeping themselves upright. Luck was still learning the game while he was a rookie, and that’s a big part of why he was sacked 41 times.
While it’s true he was taken down the same number of times last season, the Colts faced a lot of situations where they were trying to rally for the win. Luck should be smarter this season, knowing he needs to take care of his body in order to remain healthy.
Luck wasn’t sacked more than 32.5 times in 2013, 2014 or 2015. In 2015, he missed nine games, and another key injury would obviously play a big role in how this prop bet plays out. If Luck plays a full season and the team finishes around .500, he could get sacked more than 32.5 times. However, there are a lot of variables involved, and that’s why the more favorable odds that go with the “under” make it the correct choice.
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