College football has bred some great running backs over the course of the last several seasons. As a result, teams are starting to spend big-time draft assets on top running backs who can carry the load throughout their relatively cheap rookie contracts. As this new fad rolls through the NFL, the question comes up again and again as to whether any player will ever come close to touching the seemingly untouchable single-season record of 2,105 rushing yards.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Will any player break the single-season rushing record of 2,105 rushing yards during the 2017-18 NFL regular season?
Yes +1000
No -3500
Odds Analysis
It almost seems as if the day and age of the one-man backfield is starting to reemerge in the NFL. For a long period of time in the late-2000s and early-2010s, almost every team in the NFL switched from using a one-man backfield to a split backfield, and we saw an extinction of the 1,500-yard rushers.
There have always been a few exceptions to the rule. Chris Johnson rumbled for 2,006 yards in 2009. Adrian Peterson had 2,097 yards in 2012 and legitimately challenged Eric Dickerson's record, which is now 33 years old.
Three seasons ago, DeMarco Murray might have changed all of that. He ran for 1,845 yards, and his Dallas departure two years later set the table for the Cowboys to select Ezekiel Elliott in the top 5 of the NFL Draft. Elliott proceeded to rush for a team rookie record of 1,631 yards.
Still, getting all the way to 2,105 yards requires good health and an average of 132 rushing yards per game, and that's why the price is so high on any player to break the single-season rushing record this year at +1000.
Why a Player Will Break the Single-Season Rushing Record
If you're a believer in this prop, there are only a handful of guys who legitimately have a shot to carry the load over 300 times. Elliott was the only one who did so last year, and he rumbled for 1,631 yards. Jordan Howard was second-best at 1,313 yards.
Howard and David Johnson seem to be the best of the established rushers when it comes to getting to the 2,000-yard mark. Howard came out of nowhere to finish second in the NFL in rushing last season when he wasn't even really any part of the Chicago offense in the first two games of the year. Johnson only averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and we know he has the potential to do a lot more damage than that on the ground.
Of course, if Elliott was any indication from last season, you could put some stock in the top rusher in the 2017 NFL Draft, Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars really need to utilize their rushing game to take some pressure off of Blake Bortles, and there's no doubt that the bell cow from LSU can shoulder 300+ carries at this level, if he can stay healthy.
Why a Player Won't Break the Single-Season Rushing Record
Even so, if you want to say there are four players who have any inkling whatsoever to break the record, there's not much that has to go wrong to keep all four from not reaching the 2,105 mark.
We're not going to doubt what Elliott could do behind the best offensive line in the NFL, but the lines in front of Johnson, Fournette and Howard are all suspect, at best. Furthermore, all three of their teams should be playing from behind quite a bit, and that will take away opportunities for those really big games.
If you're worried about Elliott though, keep in mind that he had a remarkable season, averaging 5.07 yards per carry, tied for fifth best in the NFL. Even if he improved to 5.5 yards per carry, he'd still need to run the ball 383 times, 3.8 per times more this year than last season. It's hard to imagine him doing that.
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