There have been more perfect games in Major League Baseball than 2,000-yard rushers in NFL history, making it the most exclusive club in all of sports. But with a slew of promising young backs currently sprinkled throughout the league, is it time for the group to welcome an eighth member? Young, strong and running behind the best offensive line in the business, Dallas Cowboys sophomore Ezekiel Elliott is the favored player to join the club in 2017.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Will Ezekiel Elliott rush for 2,000 yards during the 2017-18 NFL regular season?
Yes +1000
No -3500
Odds Analysis
Teams have moved away from the workhorse and now offer backfields by committee. There still are teams that utilize a predominantly one-man setup and the Cowboys are one of them. Elliott took over the spot early last season and scampered to a franchise rookie record 1,631 yards. It’ll take more of an effort for him to reach 2,000.
It’s difficult to imagine a player in today’s game reaching the milestone. It’s happened only seven times in league history, with six coming after the league increased the regular season schedule to 16 games in 1978. That makes O.J. Simpson’s feat in 1973 even more remarkable. Simpson accomplished the feat by averaging 143.1 yards per game 6.0 yards per carry.
The additional games have allowed other players to surpass Simpson’s total and Adrian Peterson was the most recent to reach the milestone, going for 2,097 yards in 2012. Peterson averaged 131 yards per game that season on 348 carries.
Elliott is the favorite to crash the club this season and will pay a cool +1000 if he does it. There is a reason why only seven players have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season – it’s difficult to do and plenty has to go right for it to happen.
Why Ezekiel Elliott Will Rush for 2,000 Yards
Elliott wasn’t even the starter at the beginning of last season and ran for just 51 yards in the Cowboys’ opener. After two weeks he had compiled 134 yards on the ground and what came after that was unexpected. Elliott took off in Week 3 and had a stretch of four straight games where he ran for at least 134 yards.
Elliott sat out the final regular season game and had only 12 carries the previous week, but in between Weeks 2 and 15 he ran for 1,417 yards for an average of 118 yards per game. He established himself as the top back but had more than 25 carries in a game just twice. It’s a lot to ask of Elliott to carry the team, but he’s young, athletic and has the burst to make the big plays.
We saw that a number of times last season when he led the league with 14 carries over 20 yards. Elliott led the NFL in rush attempts with 322, but averaged fewer than 22 per game. Should Jason Garrett choose to utilize his workhorse more operating behind a mammoth offensive line, there’s no reason the numbers shouldn’t push the 2,000 level.
Why Ezekiel Elliott Won't Rush for 2,000 Yards
Simply put, it’s a rare occurrence. Offenses have moved away from the ground and pound style and have taken advantage of rules changes allowing for more freedom in the passing game. The number of pass attempts has increased over the years, even in what would be considered a running situation. That limits carries for running backs.
When Peterson reached the 2,000-yard mark in 2012 he accounted for nearly 80 percent of the Vikings’ rushing yardage total. When Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing yard mark with 2,105 in 1984, he was responsible for 73 percent of the team’s total. These guys were the definition of a workhorse and each played every game.
The Cowboys have more offensive weapons than just Elliott. Dak Prescott has options in the passing game with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and the strategy of resting players isn’t just a NBA thing. Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris will pick up the crumbs when Elliott takes a blow, and the 2,000-yard club isn’t in the cards for him.
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