Only seven players in the history of the NFL have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season, making it one of the most difficult accomplishments in all of sports. To reach the milestone a player must be in the right system, be the featured back and, most importantly, stay healthy. The Buffalo Bills were the league’s top rushing team in 2016 and LeSean McCoy had another sparkling season. It isn’t out of the question to think McCoy could be the next back to reach 2,000 yards after he scooted for 1,267 on only 234 carries last season.
The 2017 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. Super Bowl LII will be played on Sunday, February 4, 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
NFL Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Will LeSean McCoy rush for 2,000 yards during 2017-18 NFL regular season?
Yes +1200
No -6000
Odds Analysis
The age of dominating rushing teams is over, but dominating backs still exist. And as long as coaches are willing to ride their workhorse, there is reason to believe a player could top the 2,000 yard rushing mark this season. Three players reached the plateau since 2003 and it’s been done six times since the league expanded its schedule to 16 games in 1978. It’s a rare occurrence, but not unfathomable.
When Chris Johnson ran for 2,006 yards in 2009, he averaged slightly better than 125 yards per game and carried the ball a league-high 358 times. He amassed over one-fifth of his career yardage total that season and the number is 642 yards higher than his next highest season total.
Nobody expected Johnson to have the season he did in 2009, and that’s what makes wagering on this prop so exciting. You just don’t know when a player can have a standout season when everything falls into place. Given McCoy’s circumstances in Buffalo, it could work in his favor and he’s worth the gamble at +1200 to reach 2,000 yards.
Why LeSean McCoy Will Rush for 2,000 Yards
The biggest reason for optimism surrounding McCoy in this prop is that he plays for a team that likes to run the football. The Bills led the league in rushing the past two seasons and rely on the ground game with an uncertain quarterback situation. Sure, Tyrod Taylor is running the show, but he’s been inconsistent at best in the passing game.
New offensive coordinator Rick Dennison said he will keep many of the principles that were effective in the Bills offense last season. They were effective running the ball and they will continue to pound the rock.
The issue for McCoy is will he get enough carries to amass the necessary yardage. Taylor amassed 580 yards on the ground and Mike Gillislee also had more than 500 with over 100 rush attempts. Gillislee isn’t around after signing with the Patriots and Taylor will work on his passing game, which will reduce his number of carries. McCoy has put together five 1,000-yard seasons since entering the league in 2009 and is still in his prime at 28. He averaged just 15 carries last season and if that number increases by five and he plays a full slate, he’ll be tickling the 2,000-yard milestone.
Why LeSean McCoy Won't Rush for 2,000 Yards
It’s hard to do given the specialization at every position, and that includes running back. Teams have third-down packages, long yardage sets and an array of options when it comes to offensive schemes. Also, the passing game has evolved with rules changes over the years to help out in that area.
McCoy carried the ball more than 300 times twice in his career, his final two seasons in Philadelphia. Even then he averaged fewer than 20 carries per contest. That’s just not enough attempts to reach the milestone. He’s also missed five games over the past two seasons and while he’s still in his late 20s, he has a lot of miles on him.
While Shady still has a few good years in him, talk out of Buffalo is that his running style isn’t a good fit for Dennison’s scheme. The new coordinator prefers a one-cut attack, where a runner finds a hole and dives into it. McCoy is more of a north-south runner waiting for plays to develop. McCoy still has the tools, but is the new Bills offensive scheme right for his style? If it takes a few games to figure it out, his numbers will suffer.
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