The Rams may not be calling the Edward Jones Dome home for much longer, but they are feeling comfortable there right now. St. Louis dominated in its past two, limiting Cleveland and San Francisco to six points each while coming away with a pair of wins. The Rams are coming off an overtime loss in Minnesota last week and are 3-1 SU and ATS in the past four after a defeat.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
St. Louis Rams -7
Chicago Bears +7
Over/Under 43
ODDS
The total dropped a half-point to 42.5 and money could be made on the under. The Rams are stingy at home and have cashed the under in each of their last three games at the EJD, holding Pittsburgh, Cleveland and San Francisco to 24 combined points.
KEY INJURIES
Matt Forte – Returned to practice this week in a limited role but is doubtful to return in time for Sunday’s game with his sprained MCL. While Ka’Deem Carey officially got the start on Monday, rookie Jeremy Langford played a majority of the snaps and will be Chicago’s main threat out of the backfield.
Stedman Bailey – The Rams’ third receiver was suspended four games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. St. Louis reacted by signing free agent Wes Welker in a move that likely signals the end to Bailey’s career in St. Louis.
KEY MISMATCH
Aaron Donald last year. Alec Ogletree in 2013. Michael Brockers three years ago. And Robert Quinn in 2011. Add veteran Chris Long and ex-Lion Nick Fairley. Those five defensive linemen and linebacker are former first-round picks that are starters or current regulars on the Rams defense. Throw in four second- or third-round defensive backs selected between 2012 and 2014 and you have the meat of a St. Louis defense that is second in sacks with 27, sixth in points per game with 18.3, fourth against the pass, and fifth in yards and third-down defense. Plus, they lead the NFL in red zone touchdown defense, allowing opponents to hit pay dirt just 35.3 percent of the time inside the 20. Since their 34-31 season-opening win against Seattle, the Rams have allowed just one touchdown and 24 total points in three games at the Edward Jones Dome. Ogletree was placed on short-term injured reserve while Quinn and Long both missed time with knee injuries. Still, the defense is stout and the Bears conservative approach will be tested.
KEY STAT
35.3 – St. Louis’ NFL-leading red zone touchdown defense percentage. Chicago scores a touchdown just 47.8 percent of the time inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line.
BETTING ANGLE
The Bears would like to think their comeback victory on Monday reflected an acquired ability to close out wins after losing in successive weeks at the end of games. It is difficult to see it as a turning point since it came against a struggling opponent, but it did give further indication about Jay Cutler’s effectiveness in coordinator Adam Gase’s offense. Cutler responded after a pick-six and his own lost fumble put the Bears in an early hole. Ridiculed for his turnovers in years past, Cutler has thrown fewer interceptions than Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. The most important stat working in Cutler’s favor is the five straight games he led either a winning, go-ahead, or tying scoring drives in the fourth quarter. On Monday, he guided his 17th fourth quarter comeback drive for a victory.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Rams need more than a strong defense and Todd Gurley to be considered contenders in the NFC. Their inconsistent play is troubling, quarterback Nick Foles still looks lost in the offense and the team is scary to wager on. The Rams should win this game facing an offense that plays a conservative style due to injuries and quarterback concerns. But Cutler has thrived under Gase and is playing his best football in several years. Big play receiver Alshon Jeffery appears healed from the injuries that cost him several games at the start of the year and Langford is an adequate replacement in the backfield. Chicago needed a rally to overcome a decimated Chargers team Monday night, and while they are improved under the new coaching regime, that game isn’t a good gauge. The Bears will sellout to stop Gurley, much like Minnesota did last week, forcing Foles to make plays and keeping the game tight. The Rams will get the win, but seven points is too much to cover.
St. Louis 18, Chicago 15
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