The Cowboys had high hopes entering the season, but a healthy quarterback means a lot, and after an overtime loss to Philadelphia last week, Dallas is 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS since losing Tony Romo. The Boys have one more chance to end that slide before Romo returns, but a loss to Tampa Bay and it likely won’t matter if he does.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Dallas Cowboys +1
Over/Under 43.5
ODDS
Home hasn’t been kind to the Buccaneers, who are 1-3 SU and ATS this season, and 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in the Lovie Smith era. Even without Romo, the Cowboys have talent and they are due. Take Dallas and the points.
KEY INJURIES
Sean Lee – Dallas’ starting linebacker is not practicing this week and is doubtful for Sunday’s game as he works his way through a second concussion in five weeks. Two other defensive starters, tackle Nick Hayden and safety Barry Church, are also sitting out practice and are questionable to play against the Bucs.
Ali Marpet – Exited last week’s game with an ankle injury and didn’t return. The Bucs put Evan Smith at right guard in Marpet’s place, and he worked there in practice this week preparing to start on Sunday.
Bradley McDougald – Started at safety against the Giants with injuries to Major Wright and D.J. Swearinger and left the game with an apparent concussion. He was practicing in a limited capacity during the week and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
KEY MISMATCH
Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin had three straight 100-yard rushing games, bringing back memories of his Pro Bowl rookie season of 2012. His renaissance has come at a perfect time for the Bucs, whose offense continues to develop an identity with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston and new coordinator Kirk Koetter. Martin’s effectiveness on the ground allowed Winston to play disciplined from the pocket late in the season’s first half. If Winston continues to take care of the football, the Bucs should find themselves in positions to win games. His progress is encouraging to coach Lovie Smith. Still, we saw how damaging careless playfrom Winston is in losses to Tennessee and Carolina. The offense has taken steps forward under Koetter, and if Martin continues to run well and Winston protects the ball, the unit should produce.
KEY STAT
42.86 – Tampa Bay’s red zone touchdown percentage, one of the worst numbers in the NFL. Dallas ranks 10th in red zone touchdown percentage defense, allowing opponent’s to score on half their trips inside the Cowboys 20.
BETTING ANGLE
The Cowboys have to play one more game before quarterback Tony Romo returns from a fractured collarbone. But the desperate Cowboys, who are riding a six-game losing streak and are in last place in the NFC East, can’t wait for him to come back to begin the process of saving their season. If they don’t get a win against the Bucs, it might not matter when Romo comes back. Dallas still has hope in the mediocre division as they remain just two and a half games behind the front-running Giants, who play the undefeated Pats on Sunday night. Still, no NFL team since 1990 has started 2-6 and made the playoffs. So going to 2-7 would make it seemingly even more impossible no matter how bad the division appears to be at this time.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Dallas’ season isn’t over yet thanks to their NFC East counterparts who are all trying to avoid winning the division. But while the losses continue to pile up, the chances of repeating as division champs goes down. The Boys showed glimpses last week with Matt Cassel having an impressive outing, but another costly throw didn’t help. Four games during the Boys six-game slide could have gone either way, including last week’s overtime loss. Another went to OT, there was a 1-point loss to Seattle and the Giants beat them on a kickoff return touchdown, all without Romo. But at just 2-6 SU and ATS, the Cowboys aren’t dead yet and knowing Romo’s return is a week away will be enough to saddle the Bucs.
Dallas 26, Tampa Bay 23
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