Following a two-game losing streak, the Green Bay Packers find themselves in a tie at the top of the NFC North standings with Minnesota. Before a showdown with the Vikings the Packers have a home tilt with downtrodden Detroit. While it would be easy for the Pack to overlook the Lions, their current slide will prevent that from happening.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers -12
Detroit Lions +12
Over/Under 48
ODDS ANALYSIS
The spread was wagered down a half-point already and laying double-figures is always scary. Green Bay failed to cover as 10.5-point chalk at home to San Diego earlier this season while Detroit covered the spread as 10-point dogs at Seattle in Week 4. That was Detroit’s only ATS win this season with seven losses.
KEY INJURIES
Darius Slay – Left Detroit’s last game in the fourth quarter after sustaining a concussion and entered the league’s concussion protocol. His injury means each of the three starting cornerbacks are dealing with something. Rashean Mathis didn’t play in the game before the bye with an illness and Josh Wilson sustained a neck injury. Nevin Lawson and Quandre Diggs could pick up the slack if Slay isn’t cleared to play.
Eddie Lacy – Dropped out of last week’s game late in the third quarter with a groin injury and didn’t return. His status for Sunday remains in question. It’s the second injury he’s suffered this season, and although he didn’t miss any games, his production has declined. James Starks will get a majority of snaps out of the Packers backfield.
KEY MISMATCH
Before the season started, Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah made it clear that double-digit sacks were going to be a priority. Midway through he’s on pace for that with seven sacks in his first eight games to place in a tie for fourth in the league. His next step is a dominating one. “I just got to make sure that I’m unstoppable,” Ansah said in preparing to face division rival Green Bay. He’s come close that that level this season. Besides the sacks, he forced three fumbles, recovered one and on a particular play against Minnesota, ran down Adrian Peterson on the sideline, scampering past linebackers and defensive backs to make the tackle. His growth from a raw first-round draft pick in 2013 to one of the NFL’s feared ends is a bright spot in Detroit’s lost season. And he’s doing it in a season where he is the main focal point for most offensive lines. Ansah is constantly double- and sometimes triple-teamed now that Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are gone, and he’s putting together a career year anyway.
KEY STAT
-9 – Detroit’s turnover margin. The Lions have the worst number in football with a NFL-high 20 giveaways on the year. Green Bay has a plus-6 turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
There’s always a sense of urgency when your job is on the line, and right now the Lions are auditioning to keep theirs. In the middle of a hugely disappointing season, the Lions’ organizational shake-up began by firing the team president and general manager in the first of what some believe are many changes to come. Coach Jim Caldwell remained in place, but he could be removed by the end of the season with defensive coordinator Teryl Austin highly thought of by ownership. And it’s apparent quarterback Matthew Stafford’s time in the Motor City is numbered. With several teams staring at unsettled quarterback situations heading into the 2016 season, there will be plenty of buyers on the market for Stafford’s services should Detroit shop him in the offseason. There still is football to be played this season and the Lions better pick it up or they could all be on the block.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Two straight losses and all the experts are saying the Packers aren’t that good. When just two weeks ago the same people were claiming they were the best team in the NFC. Such is life in the NFL, when one day you’re the best and the next the sky is falling. The Packers are still one of the best and in a few weeks the so-called experts will be singing their praises once again. Now the Pack just needs to get over the bump in the road, and being tied for the lead in the NFC North will give them the kick start they need. Playing the Lions will also help. Green Bay nearly overcame a huge fourth quarter deficit last week to Carolina and played the final segment with a sense of urgency that’s been missing. The Pack regains its touch with a return to Lambeau, and Aaron Rodgers will once again look like the reigning MVP with a bounceback performance. Double-digit spreads are always tricky, but given the state of the Lions, I like the Pack to cover at home.
Green Bay 33, Detroit 18
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