After years of playoff frustration the Bengals aren’t looking for a perfect season. They’re looking for a perfect postseason. And the way they are playing right now, they may get both. Cincinnati has the biggest lead of any team in the NFL and at this point they’re not even talking about the division title anymore. And on Monday Night Football they have a chance to knock off a Texans team that’s been a playoff nemesis.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals -12
Houston Texans +12
Over/Under 48
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Texans have had the advantage at the betting window when facing the Bengals, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. Houston’s far from a safe bet when playing as an underdog, though, going 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games against the favorites. The line fell to Cincinnati -10.5, even more favorable for a much better team playing at home.
KEY INJURIES
Jadeveon Clowney – After testing out his back in practice this week, Clowney was relegated to the training room for more treatment. The initial injury came during the first half against the Titans. He left the game, tried to re-enter twice, then sat out the entire second half. Texans coach Bill O’Brien is hopeful more treatment and an extra day are enough to have him ready to play.
Andre Smith – Did not practice this week after being inactive for last week’s game. Cincy’s starting right tackle left the previous Sunday’s game with a head injury and was placed in the league’s concussion protocol. Eric Winston started in his place against the Browns.
KEY MISMATCH
The Bengals are 8-0 for the first time in franchise history because they have balance. Only New England has the same ability to attack the weaknesses of opponents with a disguised game plan. Running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard will force Houston’s edge players to respect play-action and also defend underneath and flare patterns. Tight end Tyler Eifert is a unique talent and a matchup nightmare at 6-6, 250 pounds. His routes are precise and his blocking in the run game is underrated. A.J. Green is a deep threat to keep defenses honest and the offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Texans are optimistic their defense is hitting its stride. End J.J. Watt and Co. had seven sacks and 14 quarterback hits against the Titans last time out. But the Bengals aren’t the Titans and expect them to put an extra body on Watt, unlike the unique blocking scheme used by Tennessee that allowed the Defensive Player of the Year to roam unmolested in the backfield.
KEY STAT
+4 – Cincinnati’s turnover margin. The Bengals have taken care of the football, like most good teams do, and have just eight giveaways on the year. Houston is minus-2 in turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
Cincinnati is getting a couple extra days off since beating Cleveland on Nov. 5, giving it time to reflect on the road ahead. A victory would pad their sizable lead in the AFC North and also mark the Bengals’ best winning streak in their history. Of the 21 teams that started 8-0 or better during the Super Bowl era, all have made the playoffs and eight won the title. The Bengals, however, have a string of playoff futility that dates back to 1990. They’ve lost seven straight playoff games, including one in each of the last four years – two against the Texans – since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback. While this isn’t a playoff game, Dalton, who is from the Houston area and played collegiately at TCU, and his teammates would like nothing better than to disrupt the Texans chances of climbing back into the postseason picture.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It’s hard not to like the Bengals. They are deep, talented, and undefeated. And they likely will remain that way after this week. Cincinnati has better numbers across the board than Houston. The Bengals average more yards and score more points. They rank higher in yards allowed and points given up. They have caused more turnovers on defense and have fewer turnovers on offense. The bottom line is the Bengals are a better football team. There is the added motivation of beating a team that twice knocked them out of the postseason and the game is in Cincy’s backyard. Laying double-digit points is a lot in the NFL but the Bengals are focused and facing Brian Hoyer. Advantage: Cincinnati.
Cincinnati 31, Houston 17
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