While the Jaguars are still very much alive in the AFC South race, just two wins behind Indianapolis, they need to talk less about playoffs and more about avoiding key mistakes and making critical plays at critical times. The Jags have lost five games this season in which they led or trailed by less than a score in the fourth quarter.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baltimore Ravens -6
Jacksonville Jaguars +6
Over/Under 50
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Ravens haven’t used home field to their advantage, going 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Baltimore is also 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 when tabbed as the favorites. Looks like the perfect storm brewing against the home team. The total saw a drop to 48.
KEY INJURIES
Allen Hurns – Suffered a sprained left foot last week and his status for Sunday is in question. The Jags’ second-leading receiver was injured on the game’s final play. Bryan Walters and Neal Sterling could get targeted more if Hurns is limited.
Steve Smith – Baltimore lost its top receiver for the season two weeks ago with a torn Achilles. Chris Givens will be inserted into the starting slot with Marlon Brown likely the third receiver.
Jeremy Zuttah – Injured his arm in the San Diego game and is hopeful the bye week is enough time to get him back at his starting center position. John Urschel replaced him two weeks ago and is in line to start if Zuttah is unable to.
KEY MISMATCH
The Jaguars might have a franchise quarterback in Blake Bortles. His performance last week mirrored that of his career thus far – spots of brilliance along with some turbulence – but there are probably 20 teams in the NFL that would take that. Bortles threw for a career-high 381 yards – his third 300-yard effort in the last four games – while throwing two touchdowns in his fourth straight multi-score game and his sixth such game this season. While he’s still prone to making poor throws and getting happy feet when blitzed, he has the ability to extend plays under duress with a sneaky ability to scramble. Instead of hoping Bortles will turn into a franchise quarterback, the Jaguars believe he will turn into one. Bortles has the weaponry at his disposal in Hurns and Allen Robinson, who both had little trouble getting open against the Jets’ secondary many feel is the best in the NFL. They each collected over 100 yards receiving last week, the first time the Jags had a pair reach triple-digits in the same game since 2000.
KEY STAT
47.9 – Baltimore opponent’s third-down conversion rate, the worst percentage in the NFL. Jacksonville converts on third down 36.7 percent of the time and looks to improve on its 19th ranked standing.
BETTING ANGLE
Baltimore looks to take advantage of a favorable second half schedule to make an unlikely push to the playoffs. The Ravens play five of their remaining eight games at home, with two of the road contests within the division and the other a trip to Miami. There are no cross country excursions like the team experienced in the first half. Baltimore lost all six of its games by a combined total of 30 points. A couple plays or a different bounce and the Ravens could be looking at a completely different scenario to the season. However, the reality is the Ravens might have to win out to have any chance. Coach John Harbaugh maintains that’s an achievable goal. The brutal first half is in the past and the Ravens’ coaching staff and players used the bye week to get healthy for a second half push.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s hard to imagine a pair of two-win teams talking about the playoffs halfway through the NFL season, but that’s exactly what Jacksonville and Baltimore are doing. The Jags have a shot in the weak AFC South where division-leading Indy will be without quarterback Andrew Luck for a few weeks. But that doesn’t mean anything if the Jags can’t take care of the football and avoid the costly mistakes that have cost them. Jacksonville let a wonderful opportunity slip away last week when four turnovers cost them a chance to beat the Jets. And that’s been an ongoing problem. The Jags have the pieces for a dynamic offense and shredded New York last week, but couldn’t overcome their own costly miscues. If this team holds on to the football and Bortles continues to develop into the franchise quarterback the Jags believe he can be, then they’ll be fun to watch. But the self-inflicted wounds continue to plague them and coach Gus Bradley likely won’t be around when the team finally turns the corner. Coming off its bye and staring at a favorable schedule down the stretch, the Ravens start their push with a cover win over the Jags.
Baltimore 33, Jacksonville 24
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