The Kansas City Chiefs will have to overcome their past failures against the Broncos to stay in the AFC playoff picture. KC moved back into the discussion with a pair of wins before its bye last week, and goes for its first win over Denver in eight tries. Peyton Manning has looked human this season, but he’s 19-1 against AFC West opponents since becoming the Broncos quarterback.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos -7
Kansas City Chiefs +7
Over/Under 42.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Denver is historically great at preventing back-to-back losses as favorites. The Broncos are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing as the favorite following a defeat. The line was wagered down a point to -6.
KEY INJURIES
Ben Grubbs – Missed the Chiefs’ first practice in preparation for Sunday’s game with a lingering neck injury and it doesn’t sound like the veteran will be able to play. Eric Fisher will likely get another start at the left guard spot.
Peyton Manning – Was limited in practice because of a foot injury that coach Gary Kubiak said has bothered him “for a couple weeks.” Other than the 2011 season, when Manning didn’t play following neck surgery, he’s never missed a game.
DeMarcus Ware – Could miss significant time with a back injury. Shaq Barrett will get the start at linebacker in Ware’s place and he’s going to play more than he’s ever played, according to Kubiak.
KEY MISMATCH
Quarterback Alex Smith had three interceptions after three games at the start of the season. After eight games, he still has only three interceptions and now has 197 consecutive attempts without tossing a pick. That’s the longest streak of the season and the third longest in Chiefs history. Smith said the offensive momentum built in victories over Pittsburgh and Detroit can provide a lift against the Broncos. The success of the Chiefs offense, however, hinges on Charcandrick West, who’s averaged 103.5 rushing yards in the past two games. He must be productive to take pressure off the passing game. KC has largely been a two-man affair in that regard, with receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce the only players who have been targeted more than 26 times. The Chiefs may look to exploit Denver’s secondary that will be without corner Aquib Talib, who was suspended for this game. Bradley Roby gets the start in his place.
KEY STAT
17.4 – Denver’s NFL-best points per game allowed. Kansas City scored 68 total points in two wins before the bye and averages 24.4 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
As the Chiefs come off their bye week, they face the team they most want to beat. Even before Chiefs-killer Manning landed in the Rockies, the Broncos have ruled over the Chiefs. Denver is the biggest obstacle for the Chiefs, who have found themselves staring at the backside of the Broncos in the AFC West standings. In five games over the last three years, the Andy Reid-led Chiefs are 0-5 against Denver. Since the turn of the century, the Chiefs are 11-20 against the Broncos, including seven straight losses. KC’s last win was at the end of the 2011 season, which was also the most recent victory in Denver. The Chiefs season turned back in September with a stunning home loss to the Broncos. But consecutive wins before the bye has the 3-5 Chiefs thinking postseason. The visit to Mile High begins a four-game stretch that will provide the evidence of whether the Chiefs are still a contender in the AFC.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It’s hard to see the Broncos losing to a division opponent because it just never happens. Any thoughts of an undefeated season vanished last week with an emotional loss at Indianapolis and now Manning and the Broncos can get back to work. Manning’s numbers this year are well below what were accustomed to seeing, but Denver’s top-ranked defense has compensated. KC doesn’t have a big play offense – they have only one offensive play of 45 or more yards – and the Chiefs are not going to win with the vertical strike. With Ware and Talib both out, the Broncos may be more susceptible to the big play, but KC just doesn’t have the firepower. Denver thrives at home and the D will dominate the field position game. Manning will enjoy breaking two coveted NFL records and the Broncos get the win but not the cover.
Denver 24, Kansas City 20
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