Campbell-mania is over in Miami. Following consecutive losses under their new head coach, the Dolphins are now 5-8 straight up and 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games.
Things don’t get any easier as the Dolphins play their third straight road contest taking on the Eagles, who have won three of four.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Philadelphia Eagles -6
Miami Dolphins +6
Over/Under 47
ODDS ANALYSIS
The total spiked to 49 and that’s good news for under bettors. Philadelphia has been solid on the under this season, paying out in six of its eight games. The Dolphins lost SU and ATS in their past two games, both on the road, and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven away games.
KEY INJURIES
Ju’Wuan James – Miami’s starting right tackle will miss his second straight game due to a toe injury. Jason Fox, who struggled against Buffalo last week, will take his place. Guard Billy Turner is also nursing a knee injury and if he is unable to go, the right side of the offensive line will be much weaker.
Jordan Hicks – Was placed on season-ending injured reserve after tearing a pectoral tendon last week against Dallas. DeMeco Ryans is nearing his return from a hamstring injury and will step in at the inside linebacker spot.
KEY MISMATCH
Eagles coach Chip Kelly’s offense operates best with a strong ground game, and only one team gives up more rushing yards per game than the 142.1 Miami surrenders. Running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews will see plenty of early touches as Kelly attempts to set up quarterback Sam Bradford in short yardage situations. After a slow start, the two have made for a potent combo in the backfield. Murray and Mathews combined for 620 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the last four games, much better production than the 179 yards and two scores they totaled through the first four weeks. With the two churning out the yards, the Eagles are averaging 438.8 total yards and 28.8 points in their last four outings. Miami’s prized offseason acquisition, defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh, has been double-teamed often and opposing running games have feasted on the Dolphins. The Bills piled up 266 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against them last week.
KEY STAT
+5 – Philadelphia’s turnover margin. The Eagles’ 20 takeaways are tied for the most in the NFL. Miami has turned the ball over 12 times and is minus-4 in turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
Miami’s offense isn’t identical to that of the Eagles, but there are some similarities. As Philly’s defensive coordinator Billy Davis prepares for Sunday’s game, he gets a pretty good look at it every day. Dolphins’ offensive coordinator Bill Lazor brought with him many of Chip Kelly’s principles after his one year as Kelly’s quarterbacks coach. As Kelly’s offense does, Lazor likes to run tempo. The Dolphins don’t run their offense as fast as the Eagles, but they do go more than most, and Davis’ defenders are exposed to the tempo every day. It’s unlikely the Eagles will be fooled by the designed quarterback runs, bubble screens or zone read elements, but Davis says communication is the key to defending the motion offense, and the Eagles practice that every day.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
After winning their first two games under Campbell playing with some passion, putting up 82 points combined against Tennessee and Houston, the Dolphins struggled against tougher competition and lost both. Miami’s had a tough time stopping the run this NFL season and that’s what the Eagles do best. Expect a heavy dose of Murray and Mathews as the Eagles attempt to wear down the thin defense and take the ball out of Bradford’s hands. Miami needs to get back to what worked when Campbell took over. The Dolphins were efficient running the ball and the defense got after the opposing quarterback. Those parts of the game were missing against New England and Buffalo and quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been the difference-maker. Miami desperately needs a win to stay in contention in the AFC, but there are too many weaknesses with a banged up offensive line and the inability to slow the other team down.
Philadelphia 29, Miami 20
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