New England is one of three unbeaten teams remaining in the NFL. The Giants have them right where they want. If there’s reason to believe this game won’t be a mismatch, it’s because of the recent history. New York ruined the Patriots’ bid for a perfect season with an upset in the 2008 Super Bowl, and knocked them off again four years later to capture Super Bowl XLVI.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Giants +7
New England Patriots -7
Over/Under 54
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Giants opened as 7-point home dogs which is extremely rare for them. The G-Men have been bigger home underdogs just three times since 1998, going 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS in those games. New England is 4-2-1 ATS this season when favored by a touchdown or more.
KEY INJURIES
Dion Lewis – Was lost last week to a season-ending ACL injury. Backups James White and Brandon Bolden have seen limited snaps, making a move by the Pats to shore up the running back position likely. Former Patriot Jonas Gray is available and could be a target.
Sebastian Vollmer – Was concussed and had to leave the Washington game. The starting left tackle was absent from practice this week, as were O-linemen Tre’ Jackson and Marcus Cannon, leaving the Pats thin.
Johnathan Hankins – Suffered a torn pectoral muscle last week and was put on injured reserve. Just when things were looking up for the defensive front, New York must find a replacement for their best run-stuffing lineman. Markus Kuhn and Jay Bromley will fill in.
KEY MISMATCH
It’s the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL against the league’s 32nd-ranked defense in yards allowed per game, putting the onus squarely on the Giants to come up with a game plan to contain Tom Brady and Co. The Giants acknowledged this week that the difficulty is in the Patriot’s ability to tweak their approach from game to game to attack a defensive weakness, rather than shove their strengths down an opponent’s throat. New York’s top priority is to get pressure on Brady, but their nine sacks through nine games is the franchise’s lowest total since sacks were first compiled. The Patriots offensive line is banged up and running back LaGarrette Blount is coming off a 29-carry game, so the Giants may be able to focus on a more balanced Patriots offense.
KEY STAT
34.5 – New England’s NFL-best points per game average. The Patriots were held to a season-low point total in last week’s 27-10 win over Washington. New York allows 25.1 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
New England is undefeated. Their next opponent is the Giants. If there is one team that seems to have figured out how to deal with Brady and his gang, it’s Tom Coughlin’s G-Men. New York has a 3-1 record against New England under Coughlin, including a couple of rather important victories: the 2008 and 2012 Super Bowls. In all of their meetings, the Patriots were favored, and the Giants had an inferior record. Once again that’s the case. But New England has been playing lights out against everyone, while the Giants have struggled to grasp first place in the NFC East. New York’s past success was due in part to a pass rush that was able to pressure and disrupt Brady. That pass rush has been non-existent for most of the season, though. Jason Pierre-Paul returned to action last week for the first time since blowing off a digit in a fireworks accident over the summer. If he can spark that pass rush, it could be a decider.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Patriots again look unstoppable and have cruised through the first half of the NFL season barely breaking a sweat. But there are injury concerns with the Pats. They lost third-down back Dion Lewis last week to a season-ending knee injury and the O-line has been reshuffled more than a deck of cards in Vegas. But New England does what it’s been doing for the last two decades: Bring guys in to play the system. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. No one player is bigger than the team. Take any saying and it applies to the Pats. The odds are stacked against them and a loss is inevitable, right? Parity in the league is supposed to prevent dynasties, yet here are the Patriots, once again waltzing through the season and the favorite to win the Super Bowl. But Coughlin, Eli Manning and the Giants are the one team to figure them out. One win might be considered luck, but Coughlin is 5-1 against the Pats. Call me crazy, but this one has upset written all over it.
New York 28, New England 26
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