Despite trailing the undefeated Patriots by four games in the AFC East standings, the Buffalo Bills believe they can still make a run at New England with seven remaining.
They’ll try to continue that push with their first three-game win streak since 2011 and first above-.500 record after 10 games since 2000.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -9.5
Buffalo Bills +9.5
Over/Under 49.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
New England’s injury woes caught the attention of the betting public with the line being wagered down to -7. Buffalo has had a hard time putting three straight wins together going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after posting consecutive victories.
KEY INJURIES
Kyle Williams – Was on schedule to play Monday night but the Bills’ Pro Bowl defensive tackle hasn’t fully recovered from the knee injury that shelved him back in Week 6. Corbin Bryant will continue to start in his place.
Julian Edelman – Is expected to miss several weeks after breaking his left foot against the Giants last week. Danny Amendola is the likely candidate to fill in with Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson getting increased roles in the Patriots offense.
KEY MISMATCH
Buffalo wants to batter defenses with running backs LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, setting quarterback Tyrod Taylor up to work off play-action. And with receiver Sammy Watkins healthy and stretching the field, the Bills preseason game plan is finally starting to pay dividends on the field. The dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield has combined for 888 yards rushing, 249 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. McCoy has rounded into shape the last few weeks after being slowed at the beginning of the year by a hamstring injury. He has back-to-back 100-yard games, while Williams has tied an NFL record by scoring at least one touchdown in the first six games of his NFL career. Williams is a powerful back who can run between the tackles but also possesses explosiveness to get the edge and outrun defenders at the next level. His versatility allows offensive coordinator Greg Roman to utilize him in a variety ways. The Pats allow only 88.2 rush yards per game, but a lot of that is due to teams throwing frequently while playing catch up. New England’s front seven will be tested by Buffalo’s attack.
KEY STAT
48.7 – New England’s third down conversion percentage. The Pats are the best at extending drives while Buffalo stops the opponent 36.8 percent of the time on third down.
BETTING ANGLE
Buffalo is 4-1 when Taylor, McCoy, Williams, and Watkins are active, though the lone defeat was against New England. The Bills handed the Patriots their most recent loss, a 17-9 road win last December. The Pats held out Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, and Tom Brady only played the first half after clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Still, the Bills snapped a 12-game losing streak at Gillette Stadium, along with New England’s 35-game run at home against AFC teams and 16-game winning streak there overall. After an emotional win over the Jets last week, Bills coach Rex Ryan hopes to celebrate another big win over an AFC East rival.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Patriots could be ripe for the picking heading into Monday’s showdown. They will be without two of their top offensive weapons in Dion Lewis and Edelman while the offensive line has dealt with injuries to starters Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. The defense isn’t immune to the injury bug either. Linebacker Jamie Collins and cornerback Tarell Brown were sidelined. But New England just makes adjustments, slides another player into a spot and continues to win. Oh, and they have the best coach and quarterback in the game. The Bills will have to play a near perfect football game to win and that’s just not going to happen in Gillette Stadium, where they’ve won just once since the venue was opened in 2002. I do anticipate this game being much closer than the first meeting and a cover for the Bills, but in the end it will be another loss.
New England 27, Buffalo 22
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