Two teams headed in opposite directions have turned the NFC North standings upside down.
The Vikings have won five straight and enter this division showdown with Green Bay one game up on the Packers, who have dropped three straight for the first time since 2008.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota Vikings +1
Green Bay Packers -1
Over/Under 45
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Vikings are on an absolute roll on the field and at the betting window since their season-opening debacle against San Francisco, going 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS. That might be a reason why the line was wagered to Minnesota -1 from its opening toss-up. Also, the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine series meetings.
KEY INJURIES
Jared Abbrederis – Had a breakout game with four catches for 57 yards against Detroit, but hurt his ribs on a reception in the fourth quarter. Coach Mike McCarthy said he would miss a few weeks. The Packers are hopeful Ty Montgomery is well enough to play after missing the past three games with an ankle injury.
David Bakhtiari – Was limited in practice with a sore knee and is questionable. Four of Green Bay’s starting offensive linemen were listed on this week’s injury report with tackle Bryan Bulaga and guard T.J. Lang sitting out practice.
Matt Kalil – Was the only Vikings player to miss practice early this week, sitting out with a toe injury. The starting left tackle is questionable to play for an otherwise healthy group.
KEY MISMATCH
Just how good is Adrian Peterson? Well, he has more rushing yards at this point in the season than he did in his 2,097-yard, MVP-winning season of 2012. Of course he racked up an insane 1,140 yards in the final seven games back then. His 203-yard effort last week in Oakland gave Peterson 961 yards for the year. Peterson continues to carry the load for the Vikings and run against loaded boxes. To counter that the Vikings have employed a three-tight end package that has helped pave the way for three of his longest runs this season, including an 80-yarder against the Raiders. Though it’s probably too much to expect another run at Eric Dickerson’s single-season record, Peterson is 227 yards in front of the competition in his quest for a third rushing title, which he said would mean a great deal to him. And if 2012 taught us anything, it’s that doubting Peterson on the football field probably isn’t a good idea. The Vikings should be able to establish Peterson as a force against the 24th-ranked run defense. Once they do that, it’s up to Teddy Bridgewater to play turnover-free football.
KEY STAT
35.1 – Minnesota’s third down conversion percentage. The Vikings are 23rd in the league and more success would give them more opportunities. Green Bay allows opponents to convert on third down just 39.1 percent of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
The Packers have been the kings of the NFC North for the better part of the last decade, but a new player has emerged to knock them from their throne. Winners of five straight games, the Vikings are the new leaders in the division and riding a hot streak for bettors. Minnesota is 8-1 ATS and has covered in eight straight. That dud on opening night where the Vikes were throttled by the San Francisco 49ers appears to be the exception and not the norm. The little brother is finally standing tall, loaded with confidence and swagger to finally punch the older, more decorated brother right in the kisser, sending him further down the division standings. The Vikings are 1-9-1 in their past 11 meetings with the Pack. And the one win, a 37-34 decision in the 2012 regular season finale, was followed a week later by a wild card loss at Lambeau Field.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Is the Packers dynasty in the NFC North coming to an end? The first two losses we could understand, losing to a pair of undefeated NFL teams on the road. But last week’s shocker to the Lions was inexcusable. And maybe a wake-up call. The Packers still have plenty of talent but an inefficient run game, poor execution in the pass offense and a defense that has fallen back with the pack is the perfect storm for Green Bay. And the result is what we’ve seen. I’m not ready to count the Pack out or bequeath the division title to the Vikings just yet. As Packers offensive lineman Josh Sitton said: “We have to look in the mirror.” The Packers do that, find themselves and get back to their rightful place atop the division standings.
Green Bay 26, Minnesota 21
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