The Colts haven’t lost this season with backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck starting. He’ll be directing the club for the foreseeable future with Andrew Luck shelved with a lacerated kidney as Indy looks to strengthen its grip on the AFC South. The Colts and Falcons took different paths into their byes with Indy upsetting Denver while the Falcons fell for the third time in four games with a loss at San Francisco.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons -6.5
Indianapolis Colts +6.5
Over/Under 46
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Falcons lost their last game outright as 7.5-point favorites to San Francisco and have failed to cover in the last five, all as chalk. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and Hasselbeck is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in the games he started in place of Luck earlier this season. The total spiked a point to 47.
KEY INJURIES
Andrew Luck – Is out for 2-6 weeks with a lacerated kidney. Matt Hasselbeck will take over as the starter. The Colts claimed veteran Charlie Whitehurst off waivers from the Titans to serve as the backup quarterback.
Mike Adams – Is still nursing an ankle injury suffered Nov. 8 in the Colts’ last game before their bye and is questionable to play on Sunday. He’s tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with five.
Robert Alford – The Falcons cornerback was limited in practice as he continues to deal with a groin issues. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday. The Falcons are relatively healthy coming off their bye week and could have several players back in the lineup Sunday who missed time with injuries before the off week.
KEY MISMATCH
The Falcons have already matched last season’s win total and are trying to return to the playoffs in head coach Dan Quinn’s first season with a strong second half. After winning their first five games with the help of a powerful offense, the team limped into its bye with losses in three of four games. Atlanta averaged just 16.7 points in its past four games after scoring 33.5 points on average during its five-game winning streak. The offense must be fixed and Quinn said his staff will look into running more no-huddle offense, which quarterback Matt Ryan functioned well in the past under coordinators Mike Mularkey and Dirk Koetter. Ryan and receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones believe that the offense needs to pick up the tempo and run more no-huddle sets. The players also expressed a desire to attack with more of a killer instinct before Quinn elected to kick a field goal late in the loss to the 49ers. Ryan is on pace for a career-high in passing yards and has completed 67 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns. He’s also headed for his fifth straight 4,000-yard passing season.
KEY STAT
-7 – Indianapolis’ turnover margin. The Colts have coughed up the football 19 times, the third-highest total in the NFL. Atlanta is even in turnover differential with 14 takeaways.
BETTING ANGLE
The bad news for the Colts is obvious. They will be without quarterback Andrew Luck for the next 2-6 weeks with a lacerated kidney. The good news is that the Colts have shown themselves this season to be the only team in the NFL that wins with a backup quarterback. Indianapolis is 2-0 this season with Matt Hasselbeck as its starting quarterback, making the Colts the exception and not the norm. All other teams are a combined 3-15 when forced to play their backup because of an injury to the starting quarterback. Given that, the Colts have to feel fairly confident about where they are, even without Luck.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Falcons have too much talent to be held to 16 points by a Niners defense that resembled a NFL Europe roster, which makes the loss two weeks ago even more difficult to swallow. Quinn and his staff planned on making changes during the bye to be more of a tempo, attacking team and they have the talent, especially against a leaky Colts defense that could be without starting safety and picks co-leader Adams. That void will allow Atlanta to take some shots with Jones. The defense surrendered a pair of touchdowns to the anemic Niners, but teams will score eventually. Otherwise they were fine. Getting Ryan back into a rhythm with Jones and working the run game will be big for Atlanta. A return home following a bye will also be a boost and the Falcons get back to their winning ways as Hasselbeck’s luck runs out.
Atlanta 27, Indianapolis 18
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