It’s been such a disappointing season for both teams that Sunday’s matchup was flexed out of primetime. The Chiefs, however, are making a dash for a playoff spot in the AFC thanks to a three-game winning streak that included last week’s beatdown of Denver that sent Peyton Manning to the bench. After their bye week, the Chargers will look to avoid their first six-game losing streak since 2011.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego Chargers +3
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over/Under 46
ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s hard to bet against Philip Rivers, especially when he plays the Chiefs. Rivers is 12-6 as a starter against KC with eight of those games being decided by a field goal or less. The teams have played 109 games previously, dating back to their days as charter members of the AFL, with each winning 54 games with a tie. The Chiefs won outright as 3.5-point dogs in Denver and are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three.
KEY INJURIES
Sean Smith – The Chiefs starting cornerback injured his knee last week and returned to practice in a limited role. He’s listed as questionable, but coach Andy Reid hasn’t given up on him playing Sunday.
Malcolm Floyd – Suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder on Nov. 9 and is doubtful to play on Sunday. With Keenan Allen on injured reserve, the Chargers have three healthy receivers available in Stevie Johnson, Dontrelle Inman and Javontee Herndon. Tyrell Williams could be promoted from the practice squad for depth.
Antonio Gates – Was limited in practice because of a sprained knee that he played with for the last two games before the bye week.
KEY MISMATCH
The Chargers can’t count on Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith making many mistakes. Since he threw a pick on Sept. 28, every one of Smith’s passes has either gone to a teammate or fallen incomplete. Smith has now tossed 228 straight passes without an interception, the longest streak in the NFL this season and five away from the team record. Smith hasn’t put the team on his back and carried it to victory with his passing during his career. Such wins since he joined the Chiefs don’t exist. But after some early-season struggles, the pass protection has improved with Smith relying heavily on underneath passes and his receivers making plays after the catch – such as Charcandrick West’s 80-yard touchdown last week. San Diego can load the box trying to aid its 27th-ranked run defense, but that strategy opens the middle of the field and plays into KC’s short-pass strategy.
KEY STAT
+8 – Kansas City’s turnover margin. The Chiefs have the second-best ratio in the NFL and are plus-nine during their three-game win streak. The Chargers are tied for 25th in the league with a minus-five differential.
BETTING ANGLE
The Chiefs have taken advantage of opponent’s misfortune during their three-game winning streak that’s injected them back into the AFC wildcard picture. The run began against Pittsburgh, playing without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. KC got after backup Landry Jones with three takeaways and two sacks. The Chiefs caught the imploding Lions the following the week in London, picking off Matthew Stafford twice and sacking him six times. KC faced a gimpy Peyton Manning last week. Before it was over, Manning was yanked, the Chiefs had five interceptions and five sacks, and they collected an important victory in the AFC West. During the streak the Chiefs are plus-61 in point differential, plus-nine in turnover ratio and plus-six in sack margin. Kansas City gets a banged up Chargers squad that could use another off-week to get some players close to performing.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
You have to hand it to Rivers for gutting it out with a banged-up group around him. His top two receivers are gone and San Diego could be without its top two tight ends this week. The O-line is hurting with D.J. Fluker suffering a concussion in practice. Basically, the season’s been a mess. But they’ve been in each football game during their slide, losing by an average of just 5.0 points. Kansas City has turned its season around and is playing the way many thought they would during the last three wins. West has been a nice fill in for Jamal Charles and Smith has managed the offense without turning the ball over. The Chiefs don’t put up a ton of points, but they capitalize on mistakes and are coming off a confidence-building win in Denver.
Denver 26, San Diego 20
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