Surprisingly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles have the same record at this point in the season.
While the Eagles have been a major disappointment so far following a loss to the Dolphins last week as 5.5-point home favorites, they find themselves just a half-game back of the NFC East leading Giants.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Philadelphia Eagles -4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4
Over/Under 45
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was wagered to Philadelphia -5.5 even though it’s likely Sam Bradford won’t play. The Bucs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five but haven’t won consecutive games in over two years. Philly’s inconsistent offense has rewarded under bettors. The under is 7-2 in the Eagles’ nine games.
KEY INJURIES
George Johnson – The burly defensive end left last week’s game in the second quarter with what appeared to be a serious calf injury, leaving the Bucs thin on the interior.
Sam Bradford – Was knocked out of last week’s game with a separated shoulder and a concussion and is expected to miss at least the Eagles’ next two games. Mark Sanchez replaced Bradford last week and will start. Thaddeus Lewis will serve as the backup.
Ryan Matthews – Left the Dolphins game in the second half with a concussion and will go through the league’s concussion protocol before he can play.
KEY MISMATCH
Tampa Bay’s best defensive showing of the season was aided by a strong performance from the secondary, according to coach Lovie Smith. The Bucs did a masterful job in their schemes mixing in blitzes about a third of the snaps while changing coverages to confuse Matt Cassel and the Cowboys offense. The effort limited Dallas to 216 yards of total offense, 42 yards rushing and 12 first downs. Cassel had just 186 yards and a pick while Dez Bryant was held to 45 yards on five catches. The Bucs saw more consistency from their defense after allowing at least 309 yards in all but one of their previous eight games and the six points allowed were the fewest in the Smith era. It appears the Bucs have found an effective combination at cornerback with Sterling Moore and Jude Adjei-Barimah. Both started last week and received ample playing time. The Bucs will throw different looks at Sanchez as the Eagles quarterback makes his first start of the year.
KEY STAT
+4 – Philadelphia’s turnover margin. The Eagles have 20 takeaways, including 12 interceptions. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 16 times with Winston throwing nine picks.
BETTING ANGLE
It wasn’t pretty, but the Bucs will take the final result. Tampa Bay overcame an anemic rushing attack and two interceptions by Jameis Winston deep in Dallas territory to earn a 10-6 win last week. Winston engineered a nine-play, 56-yard drive, which he capped with a 1-yard touchdown run with 54 seconds left for the grind-it-out win. Tampa Bay didn’t accomplish much before that, held to a 52-yard field goal for their only points. There are no style points in the NFL and the Bucs won’t apologize for winning the way they did. Tampa Bay won despite adversity, something this young team needed to do to demonstrate growth under coach Lovie Smith. The Bucs have thrived as road underdogs in November, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when getting points.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Buccaneers may have taken a big leap forward with last week’s win over Dallas. Sure it came against a struggling team without its No. 1 quarterback, but a win’s a win. It was also a game in which the Bucs could easily have folded. Winston showed some maturity with a game-winning drive and the defense was solid in shutting down the Cowboys. The Eagles will turn to veteran Mark Sanchez to run the offense, and that may not be a bad thing. The team’s tempo increased when Sanchez took over last week and they were in position for a game-winning score before Sanchez was picked. While he failed to lead the team to a victory, he showed the ability to rally his teammates with his leadership. Sanchez started eight games last NFL season and completed a career-high 64 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns. The Eagles are the better team and simply can’t afford to lose this game with the NFC East just waiting to be won. Look for Philly to win and cover.
Philadelphia 31, Tampa Bay 22
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