NFL Week 11 Odds - Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers Game Preview

Redskins-at-Panthers-Picks

It’s been nearly 400 days since the Redskins last won a road game and the challenge this week is to beat the team that has the NFL’s longest home winning streak. Including last season’s playoffs, the Panthers have won eight straight at BofA Stadium and they haven’t lost in their last 13 regular season outings. The odds are stacked against the Skins in this one.

NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu

Carolina Panthers -7.5

Washington Redskins +7.5

Over/Under 46

ODDS ANALYSIS

Carolina has been a good wager this season with a 7-2 ATS record, but both losses came at home where the Panthers are 3-2 ATS. Washington is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season. The line moved to Carolina -7 and the total dropped a half point to 45.5.

KEY INJURIES

Keenan Robinson – Was limited in practice with nagging body blows that sidelined him last week. Will Compton will start at middle linebacker should Robinson need an additional day to recuperate. Considering the amount of starting caliber talent out for the season on injured reserve, the Redskins are a relatively healthy team.

Charles Tillman – Hyperextended his knee last week but returned to the game. He was limited in practice but the Panthers starting cornerback is expected to play. Similar to the Redskins, the Panthers are a healthy group heading into their matchup.

KEY MISMATCH

Redskins’ quarterback Kirk Cousins finally got a coach fired. While many thought it would be Washington’s Jay Gruden, it was Saints’ defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, after Captain Kirk shredded New Orleans for 324 yards, a career-high four touchdowns and no picks with a perfect passer rating on only 25 pass attempts. Now the Skins go from facing the worst defense in the NFL to a top 10 unit in total defense, pass defense and points allowed. Washington must be wary of Carolina’s fine secondary, led by Josh Norman, who’s having a Pro Bowl-type season. Cousins and the offense faced three of the top run defenses over the last month, but will face a new challenge on Sunday. The Panthers have one advantage most other teams don’t this year: linebackers who can run with tight end Jordan Reed, effectively taking away Washington’s biggest weapon in the passing game. Yet they still manage to get pressure with their front four and are at least solid against the run. Don’t expect the Redskins to repeat their offensive performance from a week ago.

KEY STAT

+8 – Carolina’s turnover margin. The Panthers have the second-best differential in the NFL and are tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions. Cousins has thrown nine picks, all of them coming in games the Redskins lost. They are even in turnover margin.

BETTING ANGLE

The Redskins have a much better approach this season compared to last. That doesn’t mean they’ll suddenly win out or even finish with a winning record. It does mean that they’re improved over last season. New Orleans is not a good team, especially on defense, so it’s hard to point to that win as a defining moment – except from the standpoint that it was the best overall game the Skins have played in a long time. And it has provided and extra jolt of confidence to a team that never stopped believing in itself. Of course, for others to believe in them they must win on the road. A win Sunday could catapult them to legitimate NFC East contenders. Sure, their record suggests they are now, but they need a win away from home to reach a different level.

ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION

When the stars are aligned and everything goes smoothly, you just know it’s your time. That’s what the Panthers are experiencing right now. Though it might come crashing down soon, they are living a charmed life in the NFL. Let’s face it, there’s plenty of luck involved to win nine straight games and the Panthers have had their share. But you also have to be good. And Carolina is very good. They are a healthy bunch heading into Week 11 and that’s not a good sign for the rest of the NFC with a two-game lead for the top spot in the conference. Washington played its best game of the year last week demolishing the Saints and Cousins was spectacular in a 47-14 win as a 1-point dog. But he’s not facing the New Orleans defense this week and the Skins have been horrible following an ATS win going 0-14 straight up in their last 14 games following a cover victory.

Carolina 24, Washington 18

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