The Dolphins are 0-4 against AFC East opponents this season, and the games haven’t been close. Miami has been embarrassed in division games, losing all four by an average of 21.25 points. The closest was a 14-point loss to the Jets when the teams met in London in Week 4. It’s never a good sign when you’re getting pummeled by the opponents that know you best.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Jets -3
Miami Dolphins +3
Over/Under 43.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Miami has not beaten a division foe in its last six tries and the line was wagered to New York -3.5. The Jets are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when tabbed as home chalk and the Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven trips to New York. All signs point to a Dolphins to cover.
KEY INJURIES
Ju’Wuan James – Miami’s right tackle has been ruled out for the Jets game and will be replaced by Jason Fox.
Darrelle Revis – Suffered a concussion last week and remained in the league’s protocol, leaving him doubtful for Sunday’s contest. Either Buster Skrine or Marcus Williams will start in place of Revis.
Nick Mangold – Needed seven stitches to seal a gash on his right hand and isn’t sure if he’ll be able to snap the football. He is listed as questionable for Sunday. Dakota Dozier is likely to get the start if Mangold is unable to properly handle the ball.
KEY MISMATCH
Miami always wants to run the football, but curiously the Dolphins seem to abandon the run way too quickly. The Dolphins need to stay committed to the ground game with Lamar Miller, even if the Jets have early success against it. The Jets have proven easier to run on since the first meeting, so nose tackle Damon Harrison will need to plug the middle. Taking away the run will put the game on the right should of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is tied for 16th in yards per completion and tied for fourth in sacks absorbed with 30. The Jets would like to unleash their pass rush with defensive ends Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams, who have combined for 10 sacks. Failure to run the ball will leave Tannehill exposed and it could be a long afternoon.
KEY STAT
22.0 – New York’s quarterback sack total. The Jets face a Miami offensive line that has allowed 30 sacks.
BETTING ANGLE
Quinton Coples is eager to show his former team what he can do when he’s back in a three-point stance. The former first-round pick of the Jets will play defensive end for Miami after they claimed him earlier in the week. The Dolphins plan to use Coples as a pass-rushing specialist in their 4-3 scheme. That’s pleasing news for the No. 16 pick in the 2012 draft, who was a miscast 3-4 outside linebacker. Coples has 16.5 sacks in three seasons under coach Rex Ryan, including 6.5 in 2014, but none this season while starting only two games in coach Todd Bowles’ defensive alignment. Coples said he’s not out to prove anything to the Jets, but said he’s unsure why he fell out of favor. The Dolphins had a need after Cameron Wake sustained a season-ending Achilles injury last month, and Coples is more than able – just not in a Jets’ uniform.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Dolphins haven’t given up on the playoffs, but their inability to win a game against a division foe has them closer to thinking about next NFL season. They have a good chance against a Jets team that’s struggling and beat up. There could be some room in the secondary for Tannehill with Revis out due to a concussion, but the Jets fierce pass rush isn’t going to allow much time for him to throw. After a disappointing loss to Houston last week, New York’s fourth in five games, the Jets are back at .500 and scrambling just to stay alive in the playoff picture. Coach Todd Bowles has his team getting back to the basics that led to a 4-1 start, and a sense of urgency to relevance ignites the Jets to snap out of their funk with another win over the Dolphins.
New York 25, Miami 18
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