Atlanta’s 5-0 start is a distant memory and the Falcons are now fighting just to remain relevant in the NFC playoff picture. The Vikings lost control of the NFC North with a loss to the Packers last week and have yet to beat a team with a winning record. That could be good news for the Falcons.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons -2
Minnesota Vikings +2
Over/Under 44
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Vikings have been great at bouncing back following a loss. Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after losing the previous week. The Vikes have also been a boon to under bettors and cashed another ticket last week. The under is 8-1-1 and the total spiked to 45.5.
KEY INJURIES
Everson Griffen – The Vikings starting defensive end limped off the field in the fourth quarter last week with a leg injury. The team’s other starting end, Brian Robison, also had to exit the game. The injuries are not considered serious, but both players will be re-evaluated as the week progresses.
Teddy Bridgewater – Left the Packers game with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder after a sack, but returned to the game.
Devonta Freeman – Sustained a concussion in the first quarter of last week’s loss to Indianapolis and his status remains in limbo. He entered the league’s concussion protocol and must be cleared before returning to contact. Tevin Coleman would step back into the starting role with Terron Ward backing him up.
KEY MISMATCH
At the beginning of the season, the Falcons were winning all the close games. But they’ve slipped to 3-3 in contests decided by four points or less, largely because of puzzling breakdowns on the offensive side and, more specifically, the struggles of quarterback Matt Ryan. Atlanta jumped out to a 21-7 lead last week with three drives covering at least 80 yards. After that it looked like a totally different offense. Ryan did throw three touchdown passes against the Colts and has 15 overall while on pace for the most prolific yardage season of his eight year career, but some huge blunders have hurt. Minnesota was done in last week by the ability of Aaron Rodgers to escape the pocket, buy extra time, and complete passes that staggered the Vikings defense. Ryan is a mobile quarterback and the Falcons will likely move the pocket to create time and space for Ryan to find receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White.
KEY STAT
18.4 – Minnesota’s points per game allowed. The Vikings have the third-best scoring defense in the NFL but surrendered a season-high 30 last week. Atlanta averages 25.0 points per game and has scored just 17.6 points per game during its current 1-4 skid.
BETTING ANGLE
The Vikings are intent on putting last week’s loss to Green Bay behind them. The biggest mistake they can make is letting that loss become more than one. Coach Mike Zimmer was trying to pick up the pieces from an uncharacteristically sloppy game while trying to remind the Vikings that they’re still 7-3, still tied with the Packers atop the NFC North and still looking at what could be six huge games down the stretch, culminating with a Packers rematch in Lambeau Field on Jan. 3. The road starts in Atlanta where the Falcons started the season 5-0, but have lost three straight, four of five, and are on a six-game ATS skid for their backers, making them one of the worst bets in the NFL. The Packers had also lost three straight before outplaying the Vikings.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We keep waiting for the Falcons to get back on track and it just hasn’t happened. Once again they couldn’t overcome too many mistakes and a lethargic offense and fell for the third straight time and fourth in five games, blowing a two-touchdown lead to the Colts and their backup quarterback. Ryan has been around long enough and needs to avoid making the same mistakes in the passing game. Freeman’s absence will limit the running game, but Ryan will step up with big plays to Julio Jones. Defensively, the Falcons are a solid group but have been hampered by the failures of the offense. Atlanta will limit Adrian Peterson with its top-ranked rush defense and Bridgewater hasn’t shown the ability to win games on his own. The Falcons will limit the turnovers and get back in the win column.
Atlanta 23, Minnesota 17
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