New England’s pursuit of a perfect season faces its stiffest test against Denver’s top-ranked defense when the two AFC powerhouses meet on Sunday Night Football. We won’t see the Brady vs. Manning matchup, with Peyton sidelined with a foot injury, and with other talented offensive players sidelined, this could be a defensive battle.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +3
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 44.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
As the injuries continue to mount for New England the games get closer. The Pats won by a touchdown at home last week after a last-second field goal supplied them with a one-point victory in New York the week before. They failed to cover both times. It’s hard to bet against Brady, but take Denver and the points.
KEY INJURIES
Danny Amendola – Has a knee sprain that took him out of last week’s game and he’s doubtful to play on Sunday. He’s not expected to miss an extended period of time. The Pats’ receiving group took another hit when Aaron Dobson injured his foot. He’s been ruled out for Sunday.
Peyton Manning – Has been ruled out for the next two games with a partially torn plantar fascia in his left foot. The Broncos will again turn to Brock Osweiler to start in his place with recently signed Christian Ponder serving as the backup.
KEY MISMATCH
Tom Brady is having another MVP-type season completing 66.3 percent of his passes and his 332 yards per game leads the NFL. He’s also tossed the second-most touchdown passes with only four interceptions. But the 16-year vet didn’t have one of his better showings on Monday. Often under heavy pressure from Buffalo, facing pressure on 45 percent of his dropbacks, Brady completed a season-low 51.3 percent of his attempts and was intercepted once. He could be facing pressure again this week against the Broncos’ defense that leads the NFL with 34 sacks and has yielded league-lows of eight touchdown passes and 190.6 passing yards per game. Brady’s receiving corps, already without top target Julian Edelman, lost Amendola and Dobson last week and neither is expected to play Sunday.
KEY STAT
34.0 – Denver’s league-leading quarterback sack total. The Broncos’ defense faces a New England front that has allowed 22 sacks this season, but allowed numerous hits and pressure during last week’s game.
BETTING ANGLE
The Broncos and Patriots aren’t in the same division, it just seems as if they are. Since the start of the 2008 season, they have met eight times, twice in the postseason. Sunday night’s primetime affair will be the ninth time the teams have played in that eight-year span and the Patriots have a 6-2 edge. The Pats could be primed to have their undefeated season come to an end, but it’s tough to go against Brady. While New England is 10-0 SU, it has been quite pedestrian against the spread going 5-3-2 so far. We won’t have the Brady vs. Manning matchup, as Osweiler makes his second career start while Manning sits. The Arizona State product threw two touchdowns passes and had 250 yards along with a 127.1 rating in last week’s win over the Bears. The Broncos return home where they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games, a trend that will work in their favor if they hope to knock off the Patriots.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Patriots are trying to put together a perfect NFL season with duct tape and paper clips and eventually it’s going to fail. And this is the week. New England escaped last week with a win over the Bills but we saw just how vulnerable they are. The offense has lost so many parts and going against the top-ranked defense in the league, in a hostile environment, has loss written all over it. Even Brady won’t be able to deliver for the Patriots in this game. He will find Rob Gronkowski several times and probably even connect for a touchdown, but without Edelman, Amendola and Dobson, and with an offensive line that had its worst game last week, there is just too much missing from the second-ranked scoring offense. Denver has rattled its share of quarterbacks at altitude this season, and the Broncos’ get after Brady to halt the perfect run. These teams could meet up in the postseason, and with a roster not so thin, the Pats get a win. But Osweiler and the Broncos score enough in what turns into a defensive battle.
Denver 24, New England 20
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