The Saints turned their bye week into bye-bye week for defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who was fired after the worst unit in the league was gouged by the Redskins two weeks ago. Several teams had an immediate resurgence after making changes in their coaching staffs and the Saints are hopeful new coordinator Dennis Allen can do the same for the struggling unit.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans -3
New Orleans Saints +3
Over/Under 49
ODDS ANALYSIS
Houston climbed into a first place tie thanks to a 3-0 SU and ATS streak with the past two wins coming as an underdog. New Orleans has used the bye week to their advantage recently going 6-0 ATS in its last six following the off week. The Saints are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games when labeled an underdog, giving them value with a field goal to play with.
KEY INJURIES
Hau’oli Kikaha – Used the bye week to recover from an ankle injury that limited him to just nine snaps in the Saints’ previous two games. He hopes to return to action Sunday but is questionable. New Orleans also played those two games without linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, who has a hip problem that may keep him out against the Texans.
Brian Hoyer – Houston’s starting quarterback missed last week’s game with a concussion and has cleared the league’s protocol, leaving him on pace to start Sunday. T.J. Yates led the Texans to a victory last week and will return to his backup role.
KEY MISMATCH
Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins showed just how special of a talent he is when he thoroughly dominated Darrelle Revis in last week’s win over the Jets. Hopkins continued his breakthrough season and emergence as one of the top wide outs in the game, catching five passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets secondary many consider the best in the NFL. Hopkins displayed his knack for one-handed sideline catches and the speed that makes him a threat when he dashed by Revis for a 61-yard touchdown. Hopkins has no intention of conceding an inch of territory to any corner. He scored his ninth touchdown of the year on a 20-yard go route, matching the team’s single season record. He has 76 receptions for 1,045 yards and is the first Texan to have over 1,000 receiving yards in the first 10 games of a season. Hopkins’ skill at out-muscling defenders and his leaping ability have boosted quarterbacks’ confidence at lobbing the football up to him in any situation.
KEY STAT
31.5 – New Orleans’ NFL-worst points per game allowed. The Saints surrendered 43.3 points per game over the last three before the bye, costing Ryan his job. Houston scores just 20.8 points a game to rank 25th in the league.
BETTING ANGLE
The Saints promised to have some changes when they returned from their bye week. Coach Sean Payton made the first move when he fired third-year defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. His dismissal came on the day after an embarrassing 47-14 setback to Washington in which the Saints’ defense was taken apart by a Redskins offense that had been firing blanks for much of the season. So when the team left for their bye, Payton had a message that had to resonate with them as much as their last two losses to the then one-win Tennessee Titans and the Redskins. Just two years after an 11-5 season and a playoff victory on the road, a season where the Saints were fourth in total defense and scoring defense, Ryan is gone. A favorite among his players, Ryan couldn’t help the team from its downward spiral and now it’s up to Dennis Allen to see if he can turn the 32nd ranked defense around.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
While the Saints offense has been good this season, it just hasn’t been good enough to overcome the shortcomings of a young defense that dealt with injuries and inconsistent play and simply wasn’t good enough to save Ryan’s job. Facing a defense that ranks last in points and total yards allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed, and 29th in rushing yards, Hoyer and the Texans are salivating. Hoyer is expected to start after getting knocked out with a concussion two weeks ago. Yates filled in nicely, orchestrating the game-clinching drive in relief against the Bengals and leading Houston to a home win over the Jets last week. But Houston’s defense has been the story, giving up just two touchdowns over the last 14 quarters. Football is a funny game and the Saints return from their bye with renewed vigor, play inspired defense for their new coordinator and dent the Texans with their offensive punch to get back in the NFC playoff discussion.
New Orleans 27, Houston 24
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