Cincinnati returns to its usual Sunday time slot after playing three straight primetime games. The Bengals are thankful for that after dropping the past two and seeing their lead in the AFC North sliced to two games over the charging Steelers. St. Louis is still looking for an offense to complement a defense considered one of the best in the NFL.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals -9
St. Louis Rams +9
Over/Under 42.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Cincinnati has been money for its backers going 8-1-1 ATS this season. Giving away nine points to a team with a strong defense is scary so the smart play is with the visitors. The under has paid out in five of St. Louis’ last six games and the under is 7-3 overall this season. The total fell a half-point to 42, but has plenty of value given how well the teams play defense.
KEY INJURIES
Case Keenum – Sustained a concussion last week and was placed in the league’s protocol. Coach Jeff Fisher said Keenum would start Sunday if he passes the appropriate tests. Nick Foles would jump back into the starters role if Keenum is unable to play.
Darqueze Dennard – Will require season-ending shoulder surgery after getting hurt last week. The second-year pro was making his first start in place of the injured Adam Jones and had 20 tackles with an interception on the season. Jones is likely to return re-claiming his starting job.
KEY MISMATCH
Cincinnati’s defense has a glorious opportunity to get the team back in the win column going against a Rams team that has trouble moving the football even when the offensive line is intact. Now, the Rams’ battered unit must contend with Bengals’ defenders who need a strong performance to re-establish their dominance. St. Louis lost another O-lineman last week when Andrew Donnal went down with a knee injury. He was in the game because Rob Havenstein was out due to a calf injury suffered the previous week against Chicago. The Rams also lost lineman Jamon Brown and Darrell Williams in the Bears game. The shuffling led to confusion in blocking assignments that forced Keenum out of the pocket on numerous occasions and the group had a tough time opening holes for Todd Gurley. Cincinnati’s defense remains one of the strongest in the NFL despite giving up 34 points and 383 yards in a loss to Arizona last week.
KEY STAT
30.0 – St. Louis’ quarterback sack total. The Rams are fifth in the NFL in sacks and go against a Bengals offensive front that has allowed 19 sacks.
BETTING ANGLE
For as much progress as Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has made, the numbers show he still doesn’t handle pressure from opposing pass-rushers very well. While few quarterbacks do, Dalton’s total QBR when facing pressure is a mediocre 6.9, ranking him 24th among qualifying quarterbacks. Without pressure, Dalton has thrown 19 of his 20 touchdown passes, ranks fourth in passer rating and eighth in completion percentage. When he has time and isn’t running for his life, Dalton has been able to make a lot of good happen. When his pocket isn’t as secure, problems arise. He will face a Rams front line that has harassed quarterbacks for 30 sacks and is considered one of the best in the league.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Rams inept offense didn’t receive a spark from the change to Keenum at quarterback and now they might be faced with going back to Foles. Keenum was concussed last week and is going through the league’s protocol. But that’s only part of the problem. The offensive line, already beaten up, lost another starter when Donnal went down. The shifting along the front caused problems last week and the hope is that a week to prepare will have the right players in position. Another problem is that the backups just aren’t good enough to protect whoever is quarterbacking and the lanes for Gurley won’t be there either. The Bengals return home and to their usual daytime kickoff, which should bring a bit of normalcy back to the team. They may confront some difficulty moving the ball against the Rams’ D, but they should shut St. Louis down with a focus on stopping Gurley and the run game. Laying nine points is a lot against a tough defensive team, so look for a cover by the Rams while the Bengals get a much-needed win.
Cincinnati 23, St. Louis 16
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