The free-falling Falcons have dropped out of a playoff spot in the NFC and could find themselves tied with Tampa Bay if they don’t find a way to end a four-game losing skid.
The Buccaneers started Atlanta’s current slide with an overtime victory.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Atlanta Falcons +1
Over/Under 45
ODDS ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay is a favorite for the third time this season and owns a 1-1 SU and ATS record in the previous two. Atlanta is riding a seven-game ATS losing skid and played as the favorite in each one. The Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS when playing as an underdog.
KEY INJURIES
Justin Durant – Atlanta’s starting outside linebacker hurt his left ankle in the first half last week and didn’t return. He’s dealt with several injuries this season that forced him to miss three games earlier in the year. Philip Wheeler is the likely replacement if Durant is hobbled too severely.
Jacquies Smith – Suffered a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week and did not return. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday. Howard Jones will likely see more snaps at defensive end for the Bucs if Smith can’t go.
KEY MISMATCH
The Bucs would be wise to watch plenty of game tape on how the Minnesota Vikings exploited Atlanta’s run defense. The Vikes, of course, have Adrian Peterson and they kept feeding him the ball and eventually wore down the Falcons. AP finished with 29 carries for 158 yards and two scores with the Vikings accumulating 191 rushing yards on what was Atlanta’s No. 1 run defense. The Bucs have their own workhorse in Doug Martin and some curious play-calling last week took the biggest threat out of the equation in the second half. Martin totaled 235 yards rushing the week prior to move into second place in the NFL behind Peterson, and he was on his way to another big game before the touches disappeared. Martin ran for 90 yards on 12 first half carries against the Colts, then had just two rushes for seven yards in the second half, though the Bucs were within a touchdown of the Colts until the final six minutes. Look for Martin to get the ball a few more times as his ability to run helps Jameis Winston in the passing game.
KEY STAT
45.5 – Atlanta’s third down conversion rate. The Falcons are the third-best team in the NFL at extending drives and go against a Tampa Bay defense that allows opponents to convert 43.4 percent of the time on third down.
BETTING ANGLE
The mood around the Georgia Dome last week wasn’t pleasant as the Falcons dropped their fourth straight game and fifth out of the past six. Their 5-0 start to the season still has the 6-5 Falcons in the playoff picture despite the sudden collapse. However, the margin for error is shrinking with each week. The Falcons still control their own destiny in the wild card race but they probably need to sweep the upcoming three-game road trip that includes stops in Carolina and Jacksonville after a visit to Tampa Bay. The offense has been in a rut and is the main reason why Atlanta has stumbled. Receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones and quarterback Matt Ryan spoke of wanting to run more up-tempo and attacking from no-huddle formations. Nothing much changed after the bye and another lethargic performance last week could have offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan looking at ways to kick start the offense.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Falcons were never as good as their 5-0 start, but they can’t be as bad as this 0-4 slide. Unfortunately, the play of their quarterback has been a major reason why the Falcons have had trouble scoring and winning games. Even when the Falcons were bad, at least they could rely on Ryan. Now, his troubles are costing his team a shot at the postseason. It’s hard to imagine that Ryan suddenly forgot how to quarterback. He had a magnificent start and was directing one of the league’s top offenses through the first month and a half of the season. Atlanta is expected to get Devonta Freeman back and that should help take a load off Ryan’s shoulders. The defense has been solid and the Falcons will get the offense revved up against the Bucs, who just got beat by 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck and the Colts. Tampa has a bright future, it just isn’t this football season. Atlanta with the points and the under is the safe play.
Atlanta 23, Tampa Bay 17
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