The Carolina Panthers haven’t lost a regular season game in over a year and they can clinch the NFC South with a win over the Saints. New Orleans gave Carolina a scare when the teams met in Week 3, dropping a five-point game and covering as 10-point dogs. They did it without Drew Brees, who always gets his team amped in the Dome.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +6
Carolina Panthers -6
Over/Under 49.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was wagered a point to Carolina -7 and laying a touchdown on the road in a division matchup is always a scary proposition. The Saints get their first home game in a month and should be better prepared than they were last week.
KEY INJURIES
Star Lotulelei – Exited the Thanksgiving Day game with Dallas due to an ankle injury and is questionable to play Sunday. Kyle Love and Dwan Edwards will see more snaps at defensive tackle if Lotulelei is held out of action.
Dannell Ellerbe – Is dealing with a hip injury and is questionable to play Sunday. The linebacker has missed the last four games and was joined on the sidelines last week by fellow linebacker David Hawthorne. The Saints did not report any injuries following last week’s game with Houston.
KEY MISMATCH
Cam Newton insists that beyond that All-American look and nice guy persona, Carolina teammate Luke Kuechly has a “dark side.” It’s a side that only comes out when Kuechly steps between the white lines on the football field. The NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2013 is playing like the league’s top linebacker again after missing three games earlier this season with a concussion. He had two interceptions last week against Tony Romo, including one he returned for his first career touchdown. Behind Kuechly, the Panthers lead the NFL in interceptions with 18 and interception returns for touchdowns with four. The Panthers have been a top 10 defense since 2012, when Kuechly joined them as a first-round pick. He has 75 tackles, three interceptions, two forced fumble and a sack this for the league fourth-ranked defense. He’s also the undisputed leader of the unit. Kuechly and Drew Brees will face each other for the first time this season as both were injured when the teams met earlier.
KEY STAT
+16 – Carolina’s NFL-best turnover margin. The Panthers have 28 takeaways and go against the Saints who are minus-4 in turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
Coach Ron Rivera said after the Panthers 33-14 win at Dallas on Thanksgiving that his team has a lot of things to improve on. Carolina has yet to play the perfect game even though its record is perfect. But the Panthers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL and have a chance to become the first team to run the table in the regular season since the 2007 Patriots, who didn’t lose until the Super Bowl. The Panthers and quarterback Cam Newton also have a history of strong finishes. Newton’s 14 victories in December and January since 2011 are the second-most in the NFL behind Tom Brady. His total QBR is 20 points higher after November in that span. With the NFC South title and first-round playoff bye all but a lock, the Panthers won’t be under any pressure.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Saints keep marching in the wrong direction after a disappointing loss in Houston last week. The defense showed some signs of improvement, but that’s not hard to do against an underwhelming Texans group. More disappointing was the Saints’ offense, or lack thereof. One of the constants in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, the unit failed to score a touchdown last week for the first time since both coach and quarterback came to the Big Easy. And now New Orleans gets one of the top defensive units in the league. It would be difficult for the Saints to play worse than they did last week and you know they’ll be gunning to take down their undefeated division rivals. Carolina edged the Saints 27-22 when the teams met earlier this season, failing to cover as 10-point chalk. And Brees didn’t play in that game with a shoulder injury. I expect a close one so take the home team with the points.
Carolina 29, New Orleans 26
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