The landscape in Detroit has changed with the Lions rattling off three straight wins after a front office and coaching staff shakeup. The run started three weeks ago with their first win in Green Bay since 1991. Things are a bit different for the Packers, who have lost three of four and will try to regain the dominant form that led them to four straight NFC North titles.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Detroit Lions +3
Green Bay Packers -3
Over/Under 47
ODDS ANALYSIS
Green Bay lost outright to Detroit as 10.5-point chalk on Nov. 15 and is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games. While the Packers are struggling the Lions have picked it up going 3-0 SU and ATS since their bye week. Green Bay needs a win and they usually get it against Detroit making them the smart play minus the points.
KEY INJURIES
Damarious Randall – Green Bay’s starting cornerback left last week’s game with the Bears after sustaining a knee injury. He didn’t return and is listed as questionable for Thursday. Casey Hayward or Quinten Rollins could fill in if Randall is unable to play.
Glover Quin – Was lost to an ankle injury sustained on Thanksgiving and is questionable to play against the Packers. Isa Abdul-Quddus moved from his strong safety spot to Quin’s free safety with James Ihedigbo taking over for Abdul-Quddus.
KEY MISMATCH
The Packers aerial game has been hindered by injuries and, most recently, dropped passes. With the pass attack in such a funk, the Packers need to lean more on their running game. After a miserable four-game stretch, running back Eddie Lacy has rebounded with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. Lacy ran for just 78 yards during that disastrous stretch where he was limited with an ankle injury. Two weeks ago Lacy ran for 100 yards on 22 carries, then he gained 105 yards on just 17 carries last week against the Bears, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The one-two punch of Lacy and James Starks piled up 144 yards on 24 carries against Chicago. “Every game plan I’ve ever put together starts with the run game,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. Green Bay’s run game was silenced when the teams played three weeks ago in Wisconsin, but things could be different this time. Lacy didn’t play in the first meeting and the Lions own the 22nd ranked run defense in the NFL.
KEY STAT
+6 – Green Bay’s turnover margin. The Packers have the fourth-best differential in the NFL and have a league-low eight giveaways. Detroit is next to last in turnover margin at minus-9 and has the second-most giveaways.
BETTING ANGLE
It seemed out of the question a month ago when the Lions had the worst record in the NFL and were in the process of cleaning out their front office. But after winning their third straight game, knocking off the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the Lions can suddenly entertain playoff thoughts with a straight face. Detroit is still an extreme longshot, but given the state of the NFC and a schedule that doesn’t include a team with a winning record after Green Bay, their prospects are improving. There is no room for error, however, and a loss all but dooms Detroit. Even if the Lions don’t make the playoffs, which is the likely scenario, the turnaround is encouraging and beating the Packers in Green Bay three weeks ago was what got them going in the right direction. Could a sweep of the Pack lead to better things?
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Lions haven’t cashed it in, which is a testament to coach Jim Caldwell and the players. But it is easy to play when there isn’t much on the line, and that’s been the case for the Lions, who have been stuck in the basement of the NFC North and had the league’s worst record until some folks in the organization lost their jobs. Green Bay is the class of the division and while the Packers haven’t played like it since their bye, there is time to figure it out. And that time starts with the Lions. An uncharacteristic outing on Thanksgiving night cost the Pack a chance to stay on top of the division. Green Bay outplayed Chicago but turnovers and dropped passes led to a loss. The Packers were embarrassed three weeks ago when the Lions went into Lambeau and beat them. I expect an error-free game from Aaron Rodgers and his mates, and Green Bay gets back to its winning ways. The Packers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six but a field goal is a manageable spread.
Green Bay 27, Detroit 19
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