Don’t look now, but the Houston Texans are the hottest team in the NFL over the last month.
Thanks to consecutive wins over the Titans, Bengals, Jets and Saints, the Texans have erased an ugly 1-4 start and have vaulted to a tie at the top of the AFC South standings.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills -3
Houston Texans +3
Over/Under 42.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
This is an intriguing game between two quality teams battling for the postseason, and both have good defenses. While it is tough to pick a side between them, there is a more appealing bet on the total. The under is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 home games and has also cashed in three of the four games during Houston’s winning streak. Look for a low-scoring affair that finishes below the total, which dipped a point to 41.5.
KEY INJURIES
Karlos Williams – Left last week’s game at Kansas City after just five snaps played with a shoulder injury. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday. Boobie Dixon could get some snaps as LeSean McCoy’s backup in the Bills backfield.
Alex Carrington – Was placed on injured reserve after hurting his left quadriceps against the Chiefs. He was starting in place of Mario Williams, who was out with a foot injury, on the defensive line. Also, starting linebacker Nigel Bradham sprained his ankle at Kansas City and is doubtful to play against the Texans. Defensive tackle Jerel Worthy is a candidate to be promoted off the team’s practice squad.
KEY MISMATCH
The Texans did something last week no team had accomplished since 2005 – they held the Saints without a touchdown, the first time ever since Drew Brees has been their quarterback. Now they get a shot at inexperienced Tyrod Taylor, so they are probably licking their chops. The Texans rank third in the NFL in pass defense, and a major reason why is J.J. Watt, who Bills coach Rex Ryan called the best player in the league. Watt has a league-high 13.5 sacks, only 1.5 fewer than the entire Buffalo defense. He’s been a dominant force and some believe he's playing even better than 2014 when he was the NFL's defensive player of the year. The Texans move him all over, and Buffalo tackles Cordy Glenn and Seantrel Henderson will probably get an equal taste of Watt's menace. They will have to do at least a decent job containing him or it could be a long day for Taylor. The Bills will try to get McCoy going and then utilize play-action to get Sammy Watkins involved. One thing the Bills can't do is let the Texans dictate how much Taylor throws to Watkins.
KEY STAT
29.0 – Houston’s quarterback sack total. The Texans are 10th in the NFL in sacks and go up against the Bills offensive front, which has surrendered 30 quarterback sacks on the season.
BETTING ANGLE
After completing a rough three-game stretch of road games, the Bills will finally be back home, where they crushed the Miami Dolphins 33-17 as 3.5-point favorites the last time they were there. The team’s second-half schedule remains fairly difficult with two more road games immediately following this matchup with the Texans, making it critical to get a win here in one of the three home games left. The Bills are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after suffering consecutive losses, avoiding a three-game skid on one previous occasion this year. Being at home can only help them, which was the case the last time they lost two in a row, routing the Dolphins. They also have not gone more than two games without covering the spread.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It’s hard to win football games in the NFL. It’s more difficult when you’re playing shorthanded. The Bills are experiencing just how tough it is when you don’t have a full roster. Time’s running short and healthy bodies are running thin as the Bills try to stay in the AFC playoff picture. They’ll be missing at least three defensive starters when they host Houston, and that’s significant since the Texans aren’t the most explosive club. But with a makeshift lineup, even Brian Hoyer could have a big game. But the resurgent Texans have relied on defense during a four-game winning streak with Watt back to being the disruptive force. Houston kept New Orleans out of the end zone last week and the team is healthy, unlike Buffalo. We likely won’t see a barrage of points in this game, but the Texans will get enough to maintain their roll.
Houston 23, Buffalo 16
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills will start at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 6, 2015, at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
