The Atlanta Falcons have a chance to stop their melt down from reaching historic levels if they can knock off the Panthers. Not an easy thing to do against a team that has won 16 straight regular season games and can clinch a first-round playoff bye. No team since the 1970 merger has started a season 5-0 and finished below .500. There’s a first for everything, right Atlanta.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Carolina Panthers -7
Atlanta Falcons +7
Over/Under 47
ODDS ANALYSIS
Other than Atlanta playing horrible football for the past two months, another trend working in Carolina’s favor is the impact home field advantage has had in the series. The host is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The line was wagered to Carolina -7.5 while the total held.
KEY INJURIES
Matt Bryant – The Falcons’ kicker missed his second straight game with a quad injury and is questionable to return to the lineup. Shayne Graham has filled in nicely making all five field goal attempts, including a 52-yarder last week, and both extra-point tries.
Charles Tillman – After missing the past three games with a knee injury, the Panthers’ cornerback returned to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday. He’s questionable to play on Sunday, but his return is a promising sign. Otherwise, Carolina is a relatively healthy squad this late into the season.
KEY MISMATCH
Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton will undoubtedly receive plenty of MVP votes. He’s thrown five touchdown passes in two of the last three games and has a career-high 25 on the season while rushing for seven more. His 93.2 rating would easily be a career best. That includes a 115.0 rating in the fourth quarter that ranks second in the league. Newton has completed 65.3 percent of his passes – his best for any period – with six touchdowns and one interception in the final 15 minutes. “Those moments, he lives for them,” said Jerricho Cotchery, who caught the winning 15-yard touchdown pass from Newton with just over a minute to play last week. Newton has also shined in the red zone, throwing 19 touchdowns and no picks. His play is the reason why the Panthers can secure a first-round bye in the playoffs by beating the Falcons for the fifth time in six meetings. Atlanta’s defense is starting to show signs of snapping down the stretch as the group tries to hold up an offense that can’t get things figured out. The Falcons haven’t played poorly, they just haven’t done enough.
KEY STAT
19 – Carolina leads the NFL in interceptions and boasts a league-best plus-14 turnover margin. Atlanta has turned the ball over 22 times with Ryan throwing 13 picks and has a minus-2 turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
Carolina’s last four games will be against clubs currently holding onto playoff hopes. It will play the Giants next week before visiting Atlanta on Dec. 27, then hosts Tampa Bay on Jan. 3. That schedule is enough to keep the Panthers in business mode rather than focusing on completing an undefeated regular season. Coach Ron Rivera said he doesn’t plan to rest his starters all that much down the stretch despite having a playoff berth locked up in hopes of keeping them fresh for the postseason. Following their Week 5 overtime win over Washington, the Falcons were in first place in the NFC South. They have been underperforming ever since, both on the field and at the betting window. Atlanta is riding an ugly eight-game ATS skid ahead of Sunday’s game.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Falcons were the darlings of the NFL after the first month of the season. Winning five straight games, scoring points in bunches and turning heads in the league. That all changed in a hurry. Opponents have been able to stop, or at least slow, Julio Jones by blanketing him with double teams and limiting his yards after catch. No other receiver has stepped up with obvious mismatches in the secondary. They’ve also adjusted to running back Devonta Freeman and Matt Ryan has turned into Jay Cutler by throwing 11 interceptions and losing three fumbles in the last eight games. Carolina is undefeated for a reason: They are that good. Probably the most complete team in the NFL right now, the Panthers’ defense gets overshadowed by Newton’s exploits. And it’s hard to see them losing to the Falcons, who are spiraling out of control. Carolina can score and as long as the Falcons don’t settle for field goals, the over has value in what I see as a Panthers cover win.
Carolina 33, Atlanta 24
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