We’ve been trying to write the Cowboys off all season, but the rest of the NFC East just wouldn’t allow that to happen. After their huge Monday night victory, Dallas is within one game of the division lead. A win over the suddenly perplexing Green Bay Packers would go a long way toward keeping their playoff hopes alive.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers -7
Dallas Cowboys +7
Over/Under 43.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
After a blistering start to the season the Packers have been wildly inconsistent, going 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games. Green Bay played over the final total last week, thanks to a desperation Hail Mary, but had gone under in seven of their previous eight contests. The line dropped a half-point to 43 and has value given that conditions aren’t expected to be ideal on Sunday.
KEY INJURIES
Corey Linsley – All five starters on the Packers offensive line were listed on this week’s injury report but the starting center was the only one that didn’t practice. He sat out after re-injuring his ankle during the team’s last game.
KEY MISMATCH
Having a relatively healthy and preferred offensive line will be vital for the Packers to protect Rodgers against an improved Dallas pass rush. Emerging second-year pro Demarcus Lawrence and Greg Hardy, who’s in his first season with the Cowboys, have combined for 9.5 sacks. Lawrence, who has a team-high five sacks, dropped Rodgers in last season’s playoff game. The Packers also have to be on the lookout for Jerome Mincey, who doesn’t have a sack this year but has been a disruptive force along the Cowboys line. Green Bay’s recent offensive struggles can be traced to an offensive line that has been a mess. Tackle Bryan Bulaga and guard T.J. Lang sat out the win over Detroit while Linsley aggravated an ankle injury and had to depart. David Bakhtiari also hurt his knee and was taken off the field. The line looks to be in better shape after the extended break but is still fragile.
KEY STAT
-14 – Dallas’ turnover margin. The Cowboys are last in the NFL in differential and have a league-low eight takeaways. Green Bay is the best at holding onto the football with the fewest turnovers in the league and a plus-6 turnover margin.
BETTING ANGLE
The Packers had plenty of time to recuperate and get ready for the start of what looms as a critical final quarter of the regular season. Their unlikely comeback victory at Detroit on Dec. 3, capped by the Rodgers-to-Rodgers Hail Mary connection, propelled the Packers back to the top of the NFC North. To stay there, Green Bay needs to avoid a third straight letdown against an inferior opponent at Lambeau Field. At 4-8 the Cowboys are no pushover and, as crazy as it sounds, they’re fighting for a playoff spot. With a win over Green Bay and losses by all other division teams, there would be a four-way tie for the NFC East lead with each team owning a 5-8 record.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Packers got a bit of break in their schedule with a mini bye following their Thursday night miracle win at Detroit. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have a short week with travel involved on both ends. After getting their first win this season without Tony Romo quarterbacking the team Monday night, the Boys hit the road for a playoff rematch with Green Bay. Both teams have struggled offensively and points have been hard to come by. But the Pack pulled one out on a dramatic Hail Mary pass at Detroit while coming back from a 20-0 deficit. That tells us something about this club. The Cowboys got four field goals from Dan Bailey, including the game-winner from 54 yards out in the waning seconds to stay alive in the NFC East. There is a good chance that rain will be falling on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau and that could cause more problems for the offenses. The Pack will reestablish their run game with Eddie Lacy out of the doghouse and while the Cowboys defense will be tough, they simply don’t have enough firepower to win this game. Points will be scarce making the under a solid play, but seven points is too many to back the Pack.
Green Bay 22, Dallas 18
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