The Colts’ dominance over AFC South opponents will play a pivotal role in final stretch of the regular season to determine who claims the title this season. Indianapolis is 19-2 against division foes over the last four seasons and has won 16 straight. Three of the Colts remaining five games are against division rivals and they’ve won the last six against Jacksonville going 5-1 ATS in that span.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars N/A
Indianapolis Colts N/A
Over/Under N/A
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line and total remained off the board while oddsmakers waited for news regarding Indianapolis’ starting quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck returned to practice and will likely start, but nothing official has been released by the team.
KEY INJURIES
D’Qwell Jackson – Indy’s group of linebackers took a hit last week when Jackson left the game with a quadriceps injury. Also lost for that game was Erik Walden with a foot ailment. Both players sat out practice this week and are questionable to play on Sunday.
Matt Hasselbeck – Left the Pittsburgh game with a stiff neck and sore ribs and was replaced by backup Charlie Whitehurst. Hasselbeck returned to practice and is likely to start, but his 40-year-old body can only take so much.
Paul Posluszny – The Jags’ middle linebacker broke his hand last week against Tennessee and is unlikely to play Sunday. Combined with the groin injury that has sidelined Dan Skuta the last two games, the Jags were left thin at the position and brought in four linebackers for tryouts earlier in the week. Jordan Tripp will likely start for Posluszny and Joplo Bartu was signed to the active roster.
KEY MISMATCH
The Jaguars were playing without their second best receiver last week when Allen Hurns was still in the league’s concussion protocol. They didn’t miss him because their No. 1 threat, Allen Robinson, caught 10 passes for 152 yards while becoming the first Jags’ receiver since 2005 to go over the 1,000-yard mark in receiving yards. Robinson is having a breakout season with 65 catches for 1,080 yards and 11 touchdowns. Hurns, meanwhile, has passed the testing for head trauma and should be back in the Jags lineup when they face the Colts. He’s had a touchdown catch in seven of Jacksonville’s last nine games. Add tight end Julius Thomas, who has a scoring grab in each of the last three games along with 16 total receptions, and the Jags boast a potent aerial attack led by quarterback Blake Bortles, who threw five touchdown passes on 24 completions for 322 yards in a loss to Tennessee last week. The Colts lack a consistent pass rush and are 30th in pass defense. Their corners had a rough time last week against Pittsburgh’s talented receivers and could have problems slowing down Jacksonville’s.
KEY STAT
56.1 – Indianapolis’ red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. The Colts face a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st in opponent red zone touchdown efficiency.
BETTING ANGLE
To say the AFC South is a crapshoot would be an understatement, and the Colts have an opportunity to gain some ground on the Houston Texans by facing off against the Jaguars. Indianapolis has won the last six meetings between the teams, including the last three played in Jacksonville. The Colts have owned the division the past few years mainly because they’ve owned their division foes. Indy has won 16 straight games against AFC South competition and is 3-0 SU but just 1-2 ATS against division competition in 2015. The good news for the Colts is that three of their remaining five games are against division foes, including a showdown at home with Houston next week. The bad news, the streak has to end sometime.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Following a stretch where the Jags won three of four to climb into the playoff picture, a pair of close defeats have sent them further down the pecking order. Behind Bortles, T.J. Yeldon and a terrific group of receivers, the Jags have picked it up offensively and worked out some of the problems with their red zone schemes. Jacksonville was near the bottom of the NFL in red zone touchdown efficiency, but scored six points on all six trips inside the Titans’ 20 last week; a good sign indeed. But the defense has been a problem. Just when the Jags seem to have the offense figured out the D stumbles, can’t fend off the light-scoring Titans, and falls deeper. The Jags probably should have won when the team’s played earlier this season, losing by three points to Hasselbeck in Indy. With the Colts banged up on defense and a secondary that let the Steelers run around them, look for Bortles and his group to have a big day and finally end the streak.
Jacksonville 26, Indianapolis 22
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