It’s been a long time the Patriots lost three games in a row. In fact it’s only happened once since Tom Brady took over as the starting quarterback, and that was way back in 2002. But in the wake of their two straight losses, oddsmakers aren’t giving the banged up Pats much respect. The Pats opened as 3-point chalk against the Texans – the second lowest spread in their favor this season.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +3
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 44.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
New England has been the favorite in all but one game this season and the opening line is the second lowest. It’s been a rough patch lately for the Pats with two straight losses and an 0-3-1 ATS record in their last four.
KEY INJURIES
Patrick Chung – Has played the past several games with a bothersome foot injury and this week missed his first practice of the season. He has played with the injury, but it’s worth monitoring going forward.
Rob Gronkowski – Remains out of the Pats lineup with a knee injury. He has yet to return to practice and is likely a few weeks away. His backup, Scott Chandler, was limited in practice with a knee injury, but should be ready to play come Sunday.
Brandon Brooks – Came down with an illness prior to kickoff last week and was a late scratch for the Texans game with Buffalo. The starting offensive guard returned to Houston Monday after being hospitalized overnight for observation. He’s listed as questionable and would be replaced by Oday Aboushi.
KEY MISMATCH
Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel was behind three Super Bowl-winning defenses with New England, but he didn’t quite have a player like J.J. Watt on his side. Now he does and Crennel is once again looking like a genius. Watt leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks and has a team-high 24 tackles for loss. He was held without a sack for the first time in six games last week against Buffalo, and Pats coach Bill Belichick certainly will review film to see how the Bills were able to neutralize him. Buffalo ran the ball effectively with 36 carries for 187 yards and their success kept the Bills out of passing downs, taking Watt’s play-making abilities out of the equation. New England relies on Tom Brady and his passing skills, which plays into Watt’s style. The Pats are also dealing with injuries along their offensive line, which should allow Watt to have some looks at the Pats’ quarterback.
KEY STAT
28.8 – Houston’s NFL-best opponent third-down conversion rate. The Texans face a Patriots team without its third-down back, one of the league’s best third-down receivers and a productive tight end.
BETTING ANGLE
The Patriots rarely lose two games in a row. Three-game losing streaks are practically unheard of in their past 15 seasons. In fact, the Patriots have played 213 consecutive games without having a three-game losing streak, the second-longest such streak in the NFL behind only San Francisco’s 292-game stretch from 1980-99. New England’s last losing streak of more than three games came in 2002 when they lost four straight in Brady’s second full season as quarterback. The average for a non-New England team is 14 three-game losing streaks dating back to 2001. Three teams have more three-game losing streaks this season than the Patriots have in the past 15 seasons.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Pats just don’t lose games, let alone a bunch consecutively. So it’s hard to imagine New England losing a game that’s within their grasp, despite missing most of their offense. Brady is still quarterbacking and if not for several special teams blunders last week, we wouldn’t even be talking about losing streaks. For New England, it’s about the system and not the players. The coaching staff simply plugs in new guys for the ones that depart or are injured, and the team keeps winning. Brady is without a doubt the best quarterback in the game today, if not ever, and he hates to lose. That’s part of what makes him so good. He won’t allow his team to lose three straight, especially with a first-round bye not such a lock anymore. Houston has shown signs of life, but they still are a .500 club in a weak division. Playing at home in primetime will fire them up, but if points aren’t gift-wrapped for them, they’ll be tough to come by. New England will clean up its act on special teams and the Pats will cover the spread with a road victory.
New England 27, Houston 18
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