A four-game losing streak knocked the Saints out of the postseason picture. The Buccaneers can make it official with a win on Sunday, while helping their case in an improbable run to playoff contention. Tampa Bay is playing good football going 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS over its last eight and knocked off the Saints in Week 2 as a 9.5-point dog.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
New Orleans Saints +4.5
Over/Under 50.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Not everyone is a believer in the Bucs just yet. The opening line was wagered to Tampa Bay -4 while the total spiked to 51. The total has been at or above 50 in each of the Saints last seven games and the over is 4-2-1 in that span. Don’t expect a lot of defense in this one.
KEY INJURIES
Delvin Breaux – The Saints starting cornerback left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and did not return. He’s questionable to play on Sunday, leaving backups Kyle Wilson and Brian Dixon to pick up the pieces.
Willie Snead – Remains questionable with a calf injury, taking a big play receiver out of the Saints’ lineup. Brandon Coleman has stepped up as the third receiver in Snead’s place.
Kwon Alexander – Dropped his appeal of a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on performance enhancing drugs and will begin serving immediately, taking him out for the remainder of the regular season. He had started every game at middle linebacker and will be replaced by either Danny Lansanah or Bruce Carter, or a combination of both players.
KEY MISMATCH
Each week, Jameis Winston seems to do something to live up to his status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. Last week, he threw for 227 yards, ran for a touchdown and picked up 20 yards on a third-and-19 scramble during the game-winning drive. Trailing 19-16 with less than two minutes to play, the Bucs were facing a third-and-4 from the Falcons’ six-yard line. Winston calmly asked the huddle: “Who wants a touchdown?” Receiver Mike Evans raised his hand. Winston then fired a strike to a sliding Evans for the decisive score. There is no doubt Winston is the right guy to lead this team on its push for the playoffs. As Winston develops into the franchise quarterback, he faces the league’s worst defense with a chance to improve his numbers and the Bucs’ chances in the NFC. Tampa Bay improved to 6-6 and remained in the hunt for an improbable playoff berth. The Bucs likely have to win out, but Winston is giving his team a shot.
KEY STAT
31.7 – New Orleans’ points per game allowed. The Saints are last in the NFL and face a Bucs squad that scores 22.6 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Having sunk to the lowest depths in coach Sean Payton’s tenure, the Saints were not hiding their frustration after losing to the Carolina Panthers for their fourth straight loss. New Orleans suffered the same breakdowns in pass coverage that have plagued them all year and Payton didn’t hide his displeasure at the officials for missing what he considered obvious calls. And after cornerback Brandon Browner was flagged for the third time, a penalty that gave Carolina a first down inside the Saints’ 5-yard line, he had a heated exchange with defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, and the two had to be separated on the sideline. All but out of the playoff picture, the Saints will have to win three of their last four just to match their worst record since Payton was hired in 2006.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Saints are on pace to set 11 team records for defensive futility. The firing of former coordinator Rob Ryan hasn’t yielded the expected results that come with a coaching change and New Orleans will now face a Bucs’ team that is putting things together on the offensive side of the football. Back in Week 2 the team’s met in New Orleans with the Saints as a 9.5-point favorite, now the Bucs are laying four points and are the better team at this point. Even though the Bucs have played well lately, winning four of six games to climb within spitting distance of a playoff spot, they are still young and unpredictable and all but one of their wins in that span could’ve easily gone the other way. A blowout home loss to the Giants in Week 9 and a failure at Indy two weeks ago are evidence that they just aren’t ready. I like the Saints to rally around their beleaguered coach and end this slide with a close road win.
New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 29
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